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觀賞影片時可參閱以下之中英文字幕:
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影片中文字幕:
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今天，我們歡迎來到麻省理工學院的來賓是
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Thomas
Friedman
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諸位都知道他是紐約時報的國際事務專欄作者
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我必須先承認
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他的作品是少數我經常看的專欄
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內容總是發人深省，即使我不是百分之百同意
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但就像我剛剛告訴他的一樣，
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他的標題是世界上最有趣的
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任何能夠寫出獨舞、或是上週的花椰菜這種標題的人
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絕對都讓你很難忘記
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椰菜仔等等......或許花椰菜還是比較好吧！
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我想各位也都知道，他獲得過三次普利茲獎
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以及三本我們都很熟知的書
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《從貝魯特到耶路撒冷》
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《凌志與橄欖樹》，我記得Alex
Darvel幾年前介紹我看
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更接近的則是《經度與緯度》
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他是我們校區附近Brandeis大學的地中海研究科系畢業生
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稍後他又在牛津大學獲得中東研究的碩士學位
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他今日來此的目的，
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我說實話好了
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某天深夜，我在別地某處的飯店
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就像我平常在飯店所做的一樣，躺在床上亂轉電視
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我剛好看到Charle
Rose秀的最後幾分鐘
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Charlie正在訪問他，兩人討論相當精采
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他正在講著那些夷平機制，我則是靜靜的聽著
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突然之間，我驚訝的發現到...
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這是一個真正重要、有力的公眾聲音
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而且是十分關鍵的
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提到的都是對我們在麻省理工學院的成員們極為重要的事情
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諸如開放的價值
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以及科技與科學的重要性
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以及為了國家的未來，讓年輕男女可以接受這些領域的教育
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當然，除此之外
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當然，還有最基礎的，最基本的假設
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讓我們可以更清楚的瞭解，世界上目前許多最重要的趨勢
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當然，他會討論的主題是他的新書：《世界是平的》
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我想現在應該是它在紐約時報暢銷排行榜上的第二週
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稍後，他將為我們演講
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演講後將會接受提問
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我們會在五點結束
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之後，從五點十五分開始，
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將會有個歡迎活動，我不知道我們準備多少人份的食物
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簽書活動則會在樓下的Bush教室，10-105教室
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Tom，歡迎來到麻省理工學院
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謝謝各位！
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Chuck，很感謝你邀請我，這是我的榮幸
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我今天已經覺得獲益良多了
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我很期待接下來的對話
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也非常感謝你把我的書名說對了
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我經常被介紹成《貝魯特到黎巴嫩》的作者
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也很常有人說《凌志和棕櫚樹》
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還有《經度和態度》，這絕對不是Jimmy
Buffet的歌
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也多謝你提到我的新書本週在紐時暢銷排行榜上第一名
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終於贏過了珍芳達的健身書
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因為如果銷售狀況還不夠好，
我準備把書名改為《平坦世界，平坦小腹》
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我終於成功啦！至少我自己這麼認為
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我接下來三十分鐘將會討論這本書的起源
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撰寫它意外的過程
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給各位核心概念的說明，並期待跟各位的對話
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這本書真的是個意外
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我的專欄的讀者知道我在1995年一月成為專欄作者
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在1995到2001年9月10日之間
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我的專欄內容都在我稱為凌志汽車議題，
和橄欖樹議題之間擺盪
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貿易、科技、金融的議題
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地緣政治和身份衝突
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我一直在這兩個議題之間擺盪，直到911事件
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當那天來臨時，我把凌志這類的故事丟到一邊
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花更多的時間探討橄欖樹的議題
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我在911之後的三年幾乎都在回教世界旅行
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試著瞭解911的根源，報導阿富汗以及伊拉克的戰爭
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我一直處在這些議題中，
直到2004年1月，大約16個月之前
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我當時在替探索頻道作節目，其中包括911根源的探討
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我們也作了一個關於
以色列在約但河西岸建立圍牆的故事
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2004年1月，我們正和探索頻道及紐時的成員坐在一起
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試著討論下一部紀錄片的主題是什麼
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在那時，
美國在世界上的地位和失去的影響力是熱門議題
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所以我想到了一個點子，我們為何不去...
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去全世界各地的電話客服中心
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訪問那些整天模仿美國人的年輕外國人
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問問他們對美國人的意見
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我覺得這就有點像是有趣的雙重鏡像
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事實上，我們真的已經在規劃這影片的預算了
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只是，正好某位民主黨總統候選人John
Kerry
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正大張旗鼓的抨擊那些「叛國總裁」將工作機會外包
（譯註Benedict
Arnold是美國革命初期著名的叛國保皇派）
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因此，突然間，外包這個議題爆炸性的登上世界舞台
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登上了《財富》、《富比士》、《商業週刊》、
《紐約時報》、《華爾街日報》封面或頭版
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所以，我說暫停，等等
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為什麼我們不直接去邦加羅爾，印度的外包首都
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也是印度的矽谷，來作一個稱為《外包的另一端》的報導
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讓我們可以從最底層看看這個現象
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於是我們就這麼做了
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所以，在2004年2月15日，我和探索頻道的
工作人員一起往邦加羅爾出發
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在十一天左右的時間內，我們拍了大概六十個小時的訪談
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在那總長六十個小時的訪談中，我越來越覺得不舒服
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當然，不是因為食物的關係
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那是每做一次訪談，我就有的印象
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在我矇然不知的時候
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當我在採訪因911而起的戰爭時
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在這個全球化的故事中，發生了真正重大的事件
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我竟然完全沒注意到
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影片英文字幕:
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Today, to welcome to MIT
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Thomas Friedman
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Who, as you know, is the foreigner affair
columnist for the New York Times.
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I will admit up front
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that it’s one of the few columns I read
with great regularity,
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finding the content always stimulating,
whether or not I agree with one hundred percent.
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But, as I told him earlier today,
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his titles are the best in the world.
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Anybody who could write
‥Dancing
Alone〃,
or
‥Last
Week Broccoli〃,
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all of which enables you to remember
Brusell Sprout.
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Whatever, broccoli would be better!
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I think, as you know, he has won 3 Pulitzer
prizes,
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3 books that all of us know very well:
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“From Beirut to Jerusalem”,
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‥The
Lexus and the Olive Tree〃,
which I remember Alex Darvel always introduce me to a couple years ago,
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little more recently,
‥Longitudes
and Latitudes〃.
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He’s a graduate of our neighboring
institution, Brandeis University in Mediterranean studies,
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and then got a master degree in Middle East
studies at Oxford University.
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So, the reason he’s here today,
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I’m gonna tell you the truth.
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I was in a hotel somewhere rather late at
night,
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doing what I usually do in hotel: lying in
bed, flipping through channels,
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and I came across the last few minutes of
the Charlie Rose Show
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and Charlie was interviewing Tom. They are
having a great discussion.
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He’s there talking about all his
flatteners. I’m listening
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and, all a sudden, I recognized with a
startle
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that here is a really important, powerful
public voice,
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in a very articulate manner,
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speaking the things that are very important
to us here at MIT,
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things such as the values of openness,
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and things such as the importance of
science and technology.
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And the importance of young men and women
being educated in these fields, to the future of this country.
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In addition, of course,
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to the fundamental hypothesis, a
fundamental notion
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of helping us to understand a little more
clearly, some of the most important trends going on in the world.
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He was, of course, discussing his new book,
‥The
World Is Flat〃,
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which is in its second week, I guess,
number 1 on the New York bestseller list.
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So, in just a moment, Tom is going to
address us.
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He is going to take a little Q&A at the end
of that.
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We’ll cut the things off just about 5’o
clock
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but there after starting at 5:15,
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there will be a reception. I don’t know
how many people’s food was planned for,
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and the book signing downstairs in the Bush
room, 10-105.
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Tom. welcome to MIT!
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00:03:05,419 --> 00:03:06,114
(Friedman)Thank you very much, thank you.
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Chuck, thank you very much for having me.
It’s a treat and an honor to be here.
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I had an enormously stimulating day
already.
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So, I look forward to this conversation.
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Thank you also for giving my book titles
right.
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You know, I’ve often been introduced to
author of
‥From
Beirut to Lebanon〃,
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‥The
Lexus and the Palm Tree〃,
that’s a popular one,
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And
‥Latitudes
and Attitudes〃.
It’s not a Jimmy Buffett’s song.
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And thank you also for noting that my book
ascended to number 1 this week in the New York Times bestsellers list.
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I finally made ahead of Jane Fonda,
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Because I was going to retitle my book
‥Flat
World, Flat Abs〃
if I did not grow up so.
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But I made it, so.
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I thought I’ll talk for the next 30 minutes
or so, of just the origins of this book,
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the accidental way it came about,
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and give you a sense of the core piece and
really look forward to a dialog.
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This book really was an accident.
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For those of you who read my column know
that really, I became the front columnist in January 1995
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Between 1995 to Sep 10th 2001,
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my column really oscillated between what I
would call
‥Lexus
issues〃
and
‥Olive
Tree issues〃’
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issues about trades, technology, finance,
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Many issues about geopolitics and ethnic
conflicts.
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And I was really in that kind of
oscillation mode, I say, right up until September 11.
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When I read of what happened that day, I
really dropped the whole Lexus story like a stone
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and went off and cover the Olive tree wars.
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I really spent 3 years after 911, traveling
almost exclusively in the area of Muslim world,
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trying to understand the roots of 911, and
covering the war in Afghanistan and in Iraq,
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and I was really in that mode right up to
last January, January of 2004, about 16 months ago,
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when I started doing documentary recently
for the Discovery channel. We’ve done one on the roots of 911.
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We did one on the wall that Israel built in
the West Bank.
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And in January of 2004, we’re sitting
around with our Discovery-New York Times team,
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trying to figure out what to do our next
documentary on.
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And at the time, the issue of America’s
standing in the world; the America’s low stand in the world was a very
hot issue.
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And so I had this idea, I said, “Why don’t
we…
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why don’t we go to call centers all over
the world
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and interview young people who spend their
days imitating Americans
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on what they think of America?”
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I thought I make a fun kind, almost double
mirror,
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00:06:07,424 --> 00:06:10,102
and we are literarily budgeting that show
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when a certain presidential democratic
hopeful named John Kerry
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came on with his blast against Benedict
Arnold executives who outsource.
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Suddenly, it recalls the whole issue of
outsource. It just exploded onto the world stage,
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and onto the front page of the Business
Week, on Fortune, on Forbes, and the New York Times, and on the Wall
street Journal.
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So, I said, you know, “Time out.
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Why don’t we just go to Bangalore, the
outsourcing capital of India
89
00:06:39,013 --> 00:06:45,015
and the Silicon Valley of India, and do a
documentary called ‘The Other Side of Outsourcing’
90
00:06:45,050 --> 00:06:48,759
where we look at these phenomena from the
ground up?”
91
00:06:48,794 --> 00:06:51,102
And that’s what we did.
92
00:06:51,137 --> 00:06:58,438
And so on February 15th of 2004, I set off
to Bangalore with our Discovery crew
93
00:06:58,473 --> 00:07:04,747
and we shot about 60 hours of interviews,
in a course of 10 to 11 days.
94
00:07:04,782 --> 00:07:13,175
And over the course of those 60 hours of
interviews, I got progressively sicker and sicker.
95
00:07:13,210 --> 00:07:15,079
It was not the food.
96
00:07:17,151 --> 00:07:21,265
It was a sense I got with each passing
interview,
97
00:07:21,300 --> 00:07:24,872
that while I had been sleeping,
98
00:07:24,907 --> 00:07:28,842
while I had been off covering the 911 wars,
99
00:07:28,877 --> 00:07:34,204
something really big had happened, in this
globalization story.
100
00:07:34,239 --> 00:07:37,267
And I had completely missed it.
|
|
101
00:07:38,287 --> 00:07:45,902
這個感覺發生在訪談想要從邦加羅爾幫我報稅的創業家時
102
00:07:45,937 --> 00:07:57,575
還有想在邦加羅爾幫我寫新軟體、
幫我看X光片、幫我追蹤Delta航空弄丟行李的人
103
00:07:57,610 --> 00:08:05,814
當我矇懂沈睡時，有大事發生了，但我卻完全無法解釋
104
00:08:05,849 --> 00:08:09,138
事實上，我真希望我可以放那些訪談的影片給各位看
105
00:08:09,173 --> 00:08:18,409
你坐在Mphasis公司的負責人Jerry
Rao對面，
他們的集團去年在印度幫四十萬美國人退稅
106
00:08:18,444 --> 00:08:23,817
我問他：Jerry，發生了什麼事情，我一定錯過了什麼
107
00:08:23,852 --> 00:08:25,881
你們怎麼可能這麼做呢？
108
00:08:25,916 --> 00:08:28,784
到底發生了什麼事情？
109
00:08:28,819 --> 00:08:38,854
我們作的最後一個訪談是印度幾個先進科技公司
之一的Infosys的總裁，我的朋友Nandan
Nilekani
110
00:08:38,889 --> 00:08:42,708
Nandan和我正坐在他辦公室外面的沙發上，等著拍攝工作開始
111
00:08:42,743 --> 00:08:44,462
我們有點像在正式來之前的彩排訪問
112
00:08:44,497 --> 00:08:47,350
在那時，他說：Tom，我得告訴你
113
00:08:47,385 --> 00:08:51,757
全世界的經濟舞台正在被夷平
114
00:08:51,792 --> 00:08:55,748
世界的經濟舞台正被夷平
115
00:08:55,783 --> 00:08:59,454
而你們這些美國人並沒做好準備
116
00:08:59,489 --> 00:09:02,850
喔，我趕忙在我的小筆記本上寫下這句話
117
00:09:02,885 --> 00:09:06,792
全世界的經濟舞台正在被夷平
118
00:09:06,827 --> 00:09:12,914
訪談過後，我坐上我的車，回到飯店
119
00:09:12,949 --> 00:09:18,692
在那整段旅程中，我的腦中一直在想Nandan所說的話
120
00:09:18,727 --> 00:09:30,540
最後，我終於明白
Nandan所說的意思是全球的經濟舞台已經變得平坦了
121
00:09:32,535 --> 00:09:35,795
於是，於是我就想到要寫這本書
122
00:09:35,830 --> 00:09:40,686
我告訴自己：天哪，他說的是這個世界是平坦的！
123
00:09:40,721 --> 00:09:49,596
他告訴我這世界是平坦的，
而且他認為這是人類發展史上的一大突破
124
00:09:49,631 --> 00:09:53,346
我們讓世界變平了！
125
00:09:53,381 --> 00:09:56,184
當我回到飯店，我馬上打給我老婆
126
00:09:56,219 --> 00:10:00,063
我當時就這麼說：「我要寫一本叫做世界是平的書。」
127
00:10:02,133 --> 00:10:04,857
她以為我徹徹底底的瘋了
128
00:10:04,892 --> 00:10:11,998
但我回到家，我通知紐約時報的發行人、
通知我的老闆，版面編輯Gail
Collins
129
00:10:12,033 --> 00:10:13,862
各位，我得要放假
130
00:10:13,897 --> 00:10:16,277
我得要馬上休假
131
00:10:16,312 --> 00:10:23,259
我的軟體需要更新
我分析國際事務的架構需要更新
132
00:10:23,294 --> 00:10:27,278
我看到的事情我不能理解、無法分析
133
00:10:27,313 --> 00:10:33,209
如果我不能馬上放假，
我可能會替紐時寫出非常蠢的文章
134
00:10:36,824 --> 00:10:38,890
我必須承認，這是爭取休假的好方法
135
00:10:40,858 --> 00:10:41,851
非常難以拒絕
136
00:10:43,531 --> 00:10:45,480
所以我們設法安排妥當
137
00:10:45,515 --> 00:10:47,446
最後我獲得了三個月的休假
138
00:10:49,182 --> 00:10:51,860
基本上，在那段時間中
139
00:10:51,895 --> 00:10:55,247
在3月15號到12月15號之間
（譯註：講者口誤？）
140
00:10:55,282 --> 00:10:59,203
我像是發瘋、著魔一般的寫作
141
00:10:59,238 --> 00:11:00,802
我寫了這本書
142
00:11:01,731 --> 00:11:05,783
讓我先很快的解說一下前三個章節
143
00:11:06,967 --> 00:11:11,273
第一章的名稱我想非常適當，就叫做：當你沈睡時
144
00:11:11,308 --> 00:11:20,671
該章節一開始的內容是：哥倫布在1492出航
是要去找尋通往印度的捷徑
145
00:11:20,706 --> 00:11:23,661
哥倫布在1492年要去的就是那個地方
146
00:11:23,696 --> 00:11:27,127
當年的回教勢力阻擋了陸上的交通
147
00:11:27,162 --> 00:11:32,324
哥倫布不想要經過好望角，所以他往西航行
148
00:11:32,359 --> 00:11:34,815
他率領三艘船Nina、Pinta、Santa
Maria
149
00:11:34,850 --> 00:11:36,568
他並未找到印度
150
00:11:36,603 --> 00:11:42,785
但他稱呼所遇到的人為Indians，至今
我們也跟著叫他們印地安人
151
00:11:42,820 --> 00:11:47,450
然後他回到家，告訴老婆說，親愛的，我意外發現地球是圓的
152
00:11:47,485 --> 00:11:51,669
512年之後，我出發前往印度
153
00:11:51,704 --> 00:11:54,896
我很清楚我要去哪裡
154
00:11:54,931 --> 00:11:57,048
我往東飛
155
00:11:57,083 --> 00:11:59,818
我坐德航的商務艙
156
00:11:59,853 --> 00:12:03,997
我的座位上還有GPS導航系統，告訴我身在何方
157
00:12:04,032 --> 00:12:09,175
但我回家時卻告訴妻子：親愛的，我意外發現世界是平的
158
00:12:10,113 --> 00:12:13,993
第一章基本上就是描述我在印度的所有遭遇
159
00:12:14,028 --> 00:12:17,658
我並且因此獲得了這個結論
160
00:12:17,693 --> 00:12:21,240
但我跟哥倫布不同，我繼續往東走
161
00:12:21,275 --> 00:12:24,246
接著我到了中國大連
162
00:12:24,281 --> 00:12:27,285
接受日本外包的重要據點
163
00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:29,512
這是中國東北的一個重要城市
164
00:12:29,547 --> 00:12:36,090
有數以萬計的會說日文的中國人
165
00:12:36,125 --> 00:12:49,209
現在替日本跨國大企業、或原先以東京為據點的
美國跨國大企業負責後端管理、撰寫程式、處理商業流程
166
00:12:49,244 --> 00:12:54,350
為了避免諸位搞混我說的話，讓我重複一遍
167
00:12:54,385 --> 00:12:56,652
最近中國的頭條新聞是
168
00:12:56,687 --> 00:13:00,905
數以萬計通日語的中國人
169
00:13:00,940 --> 00:13:08,211
今日正從大連處理日本跨國大企業的後端管理
170
00:13:08,246 --> 00:13:13,449
因此，當地許多大學要求你必須學兩年的日文
171
00:13:13,484 --> 00:13:19,557
以便能夠進入這個不斷膨脹的日本外包市場
172
00:13:20,701 --> 00:13:24,350
然後我繼續往東走，我去了科羅拉多州
173
00:13:24,385 --> 00:13:27,798
我是真的往東走喔
174
00:13:28,921 --> 00:13:32,766
有一天我打給Jet
Blue（航空公司）來預定機票
175
00:13:32,801 --> 00:13:34,809
事實上我是在作一些研究
176
00:13:34,844 --> 00:13:40,394
於是有一個聲音聽起來很年長，很友善的女性接了電話
177
00:13:40,429 --> 00:13:44,114
我問她Jet
Blue是否有從Washington飛到Atlanta
178
00:13:44,149 --> 00:13:46,021
她說，抱歉，沒有
179
00:13:46,056 --> 00:13:50,290
最後我說了，女士，我可以請教您的大名嗎？
180
00:13:50,325 --> 00:13:52,479
她說，我叫做Betty
181
00:13:52,514 --> 00:13:56,518
我問：Betty，我可否知道您現在人在哪裡？
182
00:13:56,553 --> 00:14:02,905
她說：親愛的，我正穿著拖鞋在臥室，
看著美麗的猶他州鹽湖城景色
183
00:14:02,940 --> 00:14:08,025
因為Jet
Blue設計了一個完整的家中客服系統
184
00:14:08,060 --> 00:14:11,027
Jet
Blue是由一名成功的摩門教徒David
Neeleman所創辦
185
00:14:11,062 --> 00:14:15,413
他相信如果配偶之一在家工作，家庭會凝聚的更緊密
186
00:14:15,448 --> 00:14:19,121
因此，他創造了一個徹底的在家客服系統
187
00:14:19,156 --> 00:14:24,078
主要是由猶他州鹽湖城的退休人員和家庭主婦擔任
188
00:14:24,113 --> 00:14:28,604
所以，如果你打電話給Jet
Blue訂機票，
可能會是Betty在臥室接電話
189
00:14:28,639 --> 00:14:34,941
可能是Bob在地下室接電話，可能是Sue在浴缸旁拿著筆記型電腦
190
00:14:34,976 --> 00:14:38,733
但就是這些人在幫你們作Jet
Blue的機票預訂
191
00:14:38,768 --> 00:14:41,452
然後我繼續往東走
192
00:14:41,487 --> 00:14:44,880
我去了Washington，有天拿起了華盛頓郵報
193
00:14:44,915 --> 00:14:48,935
他們報導了一個麥當勞的驚人初期計畫
194
00:14:48,970 --> 00:14:54,091
如果你到某幾個麥當勞的得來速窗口
195
00:14:54,126 --> 00:14:57,663
你替孩子訂了六個大麥克漢堡、六杯奶昔和十八個薯條
196
00:14:57,698 --> 00:15:04,667
你事實上並不是在和那個當地麥當勞的店員講話，
你是和Colorado州
Spring的客服中心講話
197
00:15:04,702 --> 00:15:08,555
他們負責接受你點餐，把你的臉拍下來
198
00:15:08,590 --> 00:15:13,339
然後把你的照片和訂單傳回當地的麥當勞
199
00:15:13,374 --> 00:15:17,790
當你開到下一個取餐窗口時，
你的照片和訂單就會被比對並處理
200
00:15:17,825 --> 00:15:21,192
所以，世界的確在被越變越平
|
101
00:07:38,287 --> 00:07:45,902
That thought hit me somewhere between the
interview with the Indian entrepreneur who wanted to do my taxes from
Bangalore,
102
00:07:45,937 --> 00:07:57,575
and the one who wanted to write my new
software from Bangalore, and the one who want to read my X-rays from
Bangalore, and the ones who want to trace my lost luggage on Delta
Airlines from Bangalore,
103
00:07:57,610 --> 00:08:05,814
that while I had been sleeping, something
really big had happened, and I couldn’t explain it.
104
00:08:05,849 --> 00:08:09,138
In fact, I wish I could show you the
outtakes of the interviews.
105
00:08:09,173 --> 00:08:18,409
You’d be sitting across the table from
Jerry Rao, who owns a company called Mphasis. It’s a part of a group
that done 400,000 American tax returns from India last year.
106
00:08:18,444 --> 00:08:23,817
And I say to him, “Jerry, what happened? I
missed something!
107
00:08:23,852 --> 00:08:25,881
How can you be doing this?
108
00:08:25,916 --> 00:08:28,784
What happened?”
109
00:08:28,819 --> 00:08:38,854
Well, the last interview we did was with a
friend of mine, Nandan Nilekani, who headed Infosys, the CEO of Infosys,
which is one of the premier Indian high tech companies.
110
00:08:38,889 --> 00:08:42,708
Nandan and I were sitting on the couch
outside his office before the filming began.
111
00:08:42,743 --> 00:08:44,462
I was doing a kind of pre-interview with
him.
112
00:08:44,497 --> 00:08:47,350
And one point he said to me:
‥Tom,
I’ve got to tell you.
113
00:08:47,385 --> 00:08:51,757
The global economic playing field is being
leveled.
114
00:08:51,792 --> 00:08:55,748
The global economic playing field is being
leveled
115
00:08:55,783 --> 00:08:59,454
and you Americans are not ready.”
116
00:08:59,489 --> 00:09:02,850
Oh, I wrote that down in my little
notebook:
117
00:09:02,885 --> 00:09:06,792
The global economic playing field is being
leveled.
118
00:09:06,827 --> 00:09:12,914
Well, after the interview I got in my jeep,
and went back to my hotel.
119
00:09:12,949 --> 00:09:18,692
The whole time back in that ride, I kept
rolling over in my head what Nandan had said:
120
00:09:18,727 --> 00:09:30,540
“The global economic playing field is being
leveled.” And finally it occurred to me what Nandan was saying was that
the global economic playing field is being flattened.
121
00:09:32,535 --> 00:09:35,795
And then, then I thought of this book.
122
00:09:35,830 --> 00:09:40,686
I said to myself, “Oh, my God, he’s telling
me the world is flat.
123
00:09:40,721 --> 00:09:49,596
He’s telling me the world is flat, and he’s
citing this as a great achievement in human development
124
00:09:49,631 --> 00:09:53,346
that we’ve made the world flat.”
125
00:09:53,381 --> 00:09:56,184
Well, when I went back to my hotel, I
called my wife.
126
00:09:56,219 --> 00:10:00,063
This is exactly how it happened. I said:
‥Honey,
I’m gonna write a book called ‘The World Is Flat’.〃
127
00:10:02,133 --> 00:10:04,857
She thought I was stark raving mad.
128
00:10:04,892 --> 00:10:11,998
But I came home. I called the publisher in
New York Times, and my boss Gail Collins, the editor of page.
129
00:10:12,033 --> 00:10:13,862
“Gail, I’ve gotta go on leave.
00:10:13,897 --> 00:10:16,277
I’ve gotta go on leave immediately
131
00:10:16,312 --> 00:10:23,259
because my software needs updating.
The framework through which I'm analyzing
foreign affairs needs updating.
132
00:10:23,294 --> 00:10:27,278
I am seeing things out there, I cannot
understand and explain.
133
00:10:27,313 --> 00:10:33,209
If I don't go on leave immediately, I’m
gonna write something really stupid in the New York Times.”
134
00:10:36,824 --> 00:10:38,890
It's a great way to get a leave, I have to
say.
135
00:10:40,858 --> 00:10:41,851
Very hard to say no.
136
00:10:43,531 --> 00:10:45,480
So we worked it out basically
137
00:10:45,515 --> 00:10:47,446
and I eventually got three months’ leave.
138
00:10:49,182 --> 00:10:51,860
And during that time, basically,
139
00:10:51,895 --> 00:10:55,247
between March 15th and December 15th,
140
00:10:55,282 --> 00:10:59,203
in a complete frenzy, obsession, really,
141
00:10:59,238 --> 00:11:00,802
I wrote this book.
142
00:11:01,731 --> 00:11:05,783
Let me just go through the first three
chapters very quickly
143
00:11:06,967 --> 00:11:11,273
The first chapter is called, I think it
appropriately enough: “While You Were Sleeping”.
144
00:11:11,308 --> 00:11:20,671
And I begin the book by noting that
Christopher Columbus set sail in 1492 looking for a shorter route to
India
145
00:11:20,706 --> 00:11:23,661
That's where Columbus was going in 1492.
146
00:11:23,696 --> 00:11:27,127
There the Muslim powers of that day had
blocked the overland routes,
147
00:11:27,162 --> 00:11:32,324
and he didn't want to go around the Horn of
Africa, so Columbus sailed west.
148
00:11:32,359 --> 00:11:34,815
He had the Nina, the Pinta, the Santa
Maria.
149
00:11:34,850 --> 00:11:36,568
He never did find India,
150
00:11:36,603 --> 00:11:42,785
but he called the people he ran into
Indians, and we call them that till this day.
151
00:11:42,820 --> 00:11:47,450
And he came home and told his wife, "Honey,
I've accidentally discovered the world is round."
152
00:11:47,485 --> 00:11:51,669
I set off for India 512 years later.
153
00:11:51,704 --> 00:11:54,896
I knew just which direction I was going.
154
00:11:54,931 --> 00:11:57,048
I sailed east.
155
00:11:57,083 --> 00:11:59,818
I had Lufthansa business class
156
00:11:59,853 --> 00:12:03,997
and a GPS satellite that popped up in my
seat told me exactly where I was,
157
00:12:04,032 --> 00:12:09,175
and I came home and told my wife, "Honey,
I've accidentally discovered the world is flat."
158
00:12:10,113 --> 00:12:13,993
And the first chapter really goes through
all the encounters I had in India
159
00:12:14,028 --> 00:12:17,658
that led me to this conclusion.
160
00:12:17,693 --> 00:12:21,240
But unlike Columbus, I kept going east.
161
00:12:21,275 --> 00:12:24,246
I next went to Dalian in China,
162
00:12:24,281 --> 00:12:27,285
the capital of outsourcing for Japan.
163
00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:29,512
This town, a major town in northeast China
164
00:12:29,547 --> 00:12:36,090
where thousands upon thousands of
Japanese-speaking Chinese
165
00:12:36,125 --> 00:12:49,209
are now running the backrooms, writing the
software and doing the business processing for major Japanese
multinationals and major American multinationals formerly based in
Tokyo.
166
00:12:49,244 --> 00:12:54,350
Let me repeat that, in case you misheard
me, ok?
167
00:12:54,385 --> 00:12:56,652
…in light of the recent headlines in China.
168
00:12:56,687 --> 00:13:00,905
Tens of thousands of Japanese-speaking
Chinese
169
00:13:00,940 --> 00:13:08,211
are today running the backrooms of major
Japanese multinationals from Dalian
170
00:13:08,246 --> 00:13:13,449
where it is now a requirement in many
universities that you study two years of Japanese
171
00:13:13,484 --> 00:13:19,557
in order to have access to this incredibly
burgeoning market of outsourcing from Japan.
172
00:13:20,701 --> 00:13:24,350
And then I kept going east, and I went to
Colorado.
173
00:13:24,385 --> 00:13:27,798
And I really went east.
174
00:13:28,921 --> 00:13:32,766
And I called Jet Blue one day to make an
airline reservation.
175
00:13:32,801 --> 00:13:34,809
I was really doing a little bit of
research.
176
00:13:34,844 --> 00:13:40,394
And I got a rather elderly sounding woman
on the phone. She was very friendly
177
00:13:40,429 --> 00:13:44,114
and I asked her if Jet Blue flew from
Washington to Atlanta.
178
00:13:44,149 --> 00:13:46,021
She said, no, they didn't.
179
00:13:46,056 --> 00:13:50,290
Finally I said, "Madam, could I ask you
your name?"
180
00:13:50,325 --> 00:13:52,479
And she said, "My name is Betty."
181
00:13:52,514 --> 00:13:56,518
And I said, "Betty, could I ask you where
you are right now?"
182
00:13:56,553 --> 00:14:02,905
She said, "Honey, I'm in my slippers up in
my bedroom, looking out of the most beautiful scene of Salt Lake City,
Utah."
183
00:14:02,940 --> 00:14:08,025
Because Jet Blue has created a complete
home reservation system.
184
00:14:08,060 --> 00:14:11,027
Jet Blue was founded by David Neeleman, a
devout Mormon
185
00:14:11,062 --> 00:14:15,413
who believes that families would be held
together better if one of the spouses works at home
186
00:14:15,448 --> 00:14:19,121
and so he created a complete home
reservation system
187
00:14:19,156 --> 00:14:24,078
that’s manned largely by retiree and
housewives in Salt Lake City, Utah.
188
00:14:24,113 --> 00:14:28,604
So if you call Jet Blue for reservation,
you could get Betty in her bedroom.
189
00:14:28,639 --> 00:14:34,941
You might get Bob in the basement, You
might get Sue out by the hot tub on her laptop
190
00:14:34,976 --> 00:14:38,733
but that's who will make your Jet Blue
reservation.
191
00:14:38,768 --> 00:14:41,452
And then I kept moving east.
192
00:14:41,487 --> 00:14:44,880
I got all the way to Washington. D. C.. I
picked up the Washington Post one day.
193
00:14:44,915 --> 00:14:48,935
They had a remarkable story about a pilot
project begun by McDonald’s
194
00:14:48,970 --> 00:14:54,091
where if you drive up to McDonald’s now, at
certain locales you drive up to the driving window
195
00:14:54,126 --> 00:14:57,663
and you order 6 Big Mac, 6 milk shake and
18 fries for the kids.
196
00:14:57,698 --> 00:15:04,667
You are not actually speaking to that
McDonald’s.
You are speaking out to McDonald’s call
center in Colorado Springs
197
00:15:04,702 --> 00:15:08,555
that's taking down your order and taking
your picture
198
00:15:08,590 --> 00:15:13,339
and then zapping your picture and your
order electronically back to that McDonald’s
199
00:15:13,374 --> 00:15:17,790
where your picture and order are matched up
when you drive up to the driving window.
200
00:15:17,825 --> 00:15:21,192
So the world is being flattened |
|
201
00:15:21,227 --> 00:15:28,639
所用的方法我們其中很多人並不知道，
就像我開始這個計畫的時候確實可說被蒙在鼓裡
202
00:15:28,674 --> 00:15:34,106
這於是讓我得到了第一章結尾的看法
203
00:15:34,141 --> 00:15:40,192
我的看法是全球化有三個重要的年代
204
00:15:40,227 --> 00:15:43,926
第一階段是我認為的全球化1.0
205
00:15:43,961 --> 00:15:48,623
從1492延續到1800年代初期
206
00:15:48,658 --> 00:15:51,900
1820年可說是世界貿易化的關鍵
207
00:15:51,935 --> 00:15:59,062
這全球化1.0的年代可說是把世界的尺寸從大縮到中等
208
00:15:59,097 --> 00:16:04,770
那個年代的全球化是由國家所帶領的
209
00:16:04,771 --> 00:16:08,758
你透過你的國家來進行全球化
210
00:16:08,793 --> 00:16:13,856
西班牙去新世界，葡萄牙去東亞，英國殖民印度
211
00:16:13,891 --> 00:16:20,416
國家進行全球化的原因是因為掠奪主義、力量、自然資源
212
00:16:20,451 --> 00:16:24,186
但那個年代的改變動機
213
00:16:24,221 --> 00:16:25,761
其實是國家
214
00:16:25,762 --> 00:16:29,863
第二個全球化的重要年代，全球化2.0
215
00:16:29,898 --> 00:16:34,767
我認為是從1800年初期到2000年，就結束在那一年
216
00:16:35,711 --> 00:16:39,413
這一段時代的全球化讓世界從中型縮到小型
217
00:16:39,804 --> 00:16:45,061
我認為，這段時間的全球化是由公司全球化所帶領的
218
00:16:45,096 --> 00:16:48,372
跨國企業進行全球化是為了市場、為了勞動力
219
00:16:48,407 --> 00:16:53,732
在這段全球化的年代中，你是透過你的公司來進行全球化
220
00:16:53,767 --> 00:16:58,395
公司是那個年代的全球化動機
221
00:16:59,562 --> 00:17:03,230
我在這本書中的論點是，當你沈睡的時候
222
00:17:03,265 --> 00:17:06,062
我們進入了全球化3.0的時代
223
00:17:06,097 --> 00:17:07,638
我也一樣沈睡著昧於這個真相
224
00:17:07,673 --> 00:17:11,222
它將世界從小型縮成微型
225
00:17:11,257 --> 00:17:15,525
同時夷平了全球的經濟舞台
226
00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:20,430
但這一年代真正獨特不同的地方在於
227
00:17:20,465 --> 00:17:27,783
這一年代的全球化並不是國家全球化
228
00:17:27,818 --> 00:17:31,263
不是公司全球化
229
00:17:31,298 --> 00:17:41,590
這一年代獨特的將會是個人持續的全球化
230
00:17:41,625 --> 00:17:43,870
個體和小的團隊
231
00:17:43,905 --> 00:17:52,303
這一年代獨特的地方，
就是這些個體和小團隊能將自己全球化的程度
232
00:17:52,338 --> 00:17:58,135
而且更必須越來越以全球化的角度思考
，和將自己置於全球化的浪潮之中
233
00:17:59,111 --> 00:18:00,834
各位注意了
234
00:18:00,869 --> 00:18:03,818
我認為，這個全球化的年代
235
00:18:03,853 --> 00:18:06,816
與全球化2.0和1.0都不同
236
00:18:06,851 --> 00:18:12,697
將不會只有一群西方的白人群體得以參與
237
00:18:12,732 --> 00:18:14,952
他們原先稱霸了前兩個全球化的年代
238
00:18:14,987 --> 00:18:23,080
而將會是由各種膚色，
能夠隨時連上網路的個體和人群來參與
239
00:18:24,010 --> 00:18:26,547
所以，這是第一章的論點
240
00:18:26,582 --> 00:18:29,505
本書花了我最多時間的第二章，
241
00:18:29,540 --> 00:18:32,683
叫做十天夷平全世界
242
00:18:32,718 --> 00:18:37,851
是有關十種夷平世界的科技、力量和發明，
我試著在每一天安排一種力量在其中
243
00:18:37,886 --> 00:18:42,757
這些力量創造了這平坦的全球舞台
244
00:18:43,733 --> 00:18:47,853
讓我一條一條盡快描述這十種夷平機制
245
00:18:47,888 --> 00:18:51,332
第一個夷平機制是11/9
246
00:18:51,367 --> 00:18:53,747
不是9/11而是11/9
247
00:18:53,782 --> 00:18:55,888
1989年11月9號
248
00:18:55,923 --> 00:18:59,152
11月9號是柏林圍牆倒下的日子
249
00:18:59,187 --> 00:19:02,666
一個日期上的巧合
250
00:19:02,701 --> 00:19:06,741
柏林圍牆的倒塌是個重要的夷平機制
251
00:19:06,776 --> 00:19:12,486
因為圍牆的倒塌讓我們得以將全世界視為單一的平原
252
00:19:12,521 --> 00:19:16,781
我敢說，如果我們回頭查詢麻省理工或是紐時的資料庫
253
00:19:16,816 --> 00:19:22,382
在1970或是80年代，我們不會找到很多關於全球化的課程
254
00:19:22,417 --> 00:19:27,158
會有東方政策的課程，或是西方政策的課程
255
00:19:27,193 --> 00:19:30,046
他們會教導南北的不同
256
00:19:30,081 --> 00:19:34,325
但沒有人會討論全球化，因為有堵牆擋住了道路
257
00:19:34,360 --> 00:19:41,766
圍牆的倒塌是個夷平世界的關鍵，
讓我們得以將全世界視為單一的平原
258
00:19:43,340 --> 00:19:48,657
我把這個圍牆倒下，視窗出現的時間點叫做第一個夷平機制
259
00:19:48,692 --> 00:19:55,858
因為視窗3.0作業系統在柏林圍牆倒塌後五個月上市
260
00:19:55,893 --> 00:19:58,610
這兩件事情發生在同時
261
00:20:00,099 --> 00:20:10,626
不只圍牆倒塌，讓我們可以把世界看成同一個領域
我們還有一個單一的圖形界面系統，讓我們可以觀察這個世界
262
00:20:10,661 --> 00:20:12,291
那是第一個夷平機制
263
00:20:13,604 --> 00:20:17,115
第二個夷平機制是1995年8月9號
264
00:20:17,150 --> 00:20:22,426
我認為1995年8月9號是西方文明最重要的日期之一
265
00:20:22,461 --> 00:20:31,257
1995年8月9號是一個位在美國加州
Mountain View的小公司Netscape股票上市的日期
266
00:20:31,292 --> 00:20:35,131
Netscape上市會成為重要的夷平機制有三個原因
267
00:20:35,166 --> 00:20:39,178
首先，是Netscape瀏覽器
268
00:20:39,213 --> 00:20:44,866
是我們第一個真正能讓網路鮮活起來的網路瀏覽器
269
00:20:44,901 --> 00:20:49,553
讓爺爺奶奶孫子孫女都可以使用
270
00:20:49,588 --> 00:20:53,593
而不是只有在麻省理工受訓的電腦科學家可以使用
271
00:20:53,628 --> 00:20:58,835
所以，在我認為Netscape最大的功勞是讓網路鮮活起來
272
00:20:58,870 --> 00:21:09,298
讓來自不同地方的人們，可以用各種方式
前所未有的彼此聯繫
273
00:21:09,333 --> 00:21:13,428
第二件Netscape協助，但並非獨力完成的是：
274
00:21:13,463 --> 00:21:17,537
Netscape將一些開放的傳輸協定商業化
275
00:21:17,572 --> 00:21:26,034
確保了網路可以跨平台跨國使用，
而不會僅是某些公司的資產或是任何人的後花園
276
00:21:26,069 --> 00:21:30,123
第三點，對我來說最重要的是Netscape觸發了網路熱潮
277
00:21:30,158 --> 00:21:32,522
也引起了網路泡沫化
278
00:21:32,557 --> 00:21:44,772
意外觸發了瘋狂、不合理、難以說明的投資熱潮
五年內在光纖纜線設備上投入了將近十兆美金
279
00:21:44,807 --> 00:21:52,751
而這瘋狂、不合理、難以說明的
在五年內投資十兆美金於光纖網路上的熱潮
280
00:21:52,786 --> 00:21:59,904
意外的讓北京、邦加羅爾、
我所居住的Bethesda成為隔壁鄰居
281
00:21:59,939 --> 00:22:03,688
沒有任何人、任何組織計畫了這件事情
282
00:22:03,723 --> 00:22:07,000
你們都應該可以回想起來這是怎麼發生的
283
00:22:07,035 --> 00:22:09,733
Netscape在1995年8月9號上市
284
00:22:09,768 --> 00:22:13,706
開盤價格是28美金
285
00:22:13,741 --> 00:22:18,893
當天股市以71開市，56收盤
286
00:22:18,928 --> 00:22:27,374
我們看著這狀況都認為:他們一定很賺錢
287
00:22:28,446 --> 00:22:32,125
所以我們怎麼作，我們都開始搶購GlobalAcrossing
288
00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:36,708
Nortel、Lucent
289
00:22:36,743 --> 00:22:39,470
拜託，承認吧，這是在你們的退休計畫裡面的股票
290
00:22:40,798 --> 00:22:43,405
那些公司拿了我們的錢
291
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:53,369
我們的共同基金之後，在海上、
在地上埋設了一哩又一哩的光纖纜線
292
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:57,162
諸位一定都很清楚
293
00:22:57,197 --> 00:23:03,362
光纖纜線是永遠不會停止的禮物
294
00:23:04,309 --> 00:23:13,371
因為一旦將它們埋下，你只需要將
各端點的轉換器升級，就可以傳輸越來越多的容量
295
00:23:14,541 --> 00:23:20,596
基本上，這大量的、無孔不入的光纖
296
00:23:20,631 --> 00:23:29,508
讓更多地方的更多人，
幾乎可說是史無前例完全免費的彼此溝通
297
00:23:30,795 --> 00:23:34,771
所以，這就是Netscape的夷平機制的意義
298
00:23:34,806 --> 00:23:36,989
第三個夷平機制我簡單的稱其為工作流程
299
00:23:37,024 --> 00:23:44,198
工作流程是我對於所有能讓工作運作的軟體和標準的簡稱
300
00:23:44,233 --> 00:23:52,309
包括微軟的WORD、Netmeeting，
所有你們工作時所使用的軟體等等
|
201
00:15:21,227 --> 00:15:28,639
in all kinds of ways that a lot of us
aren't fully aware of.
I certainly was not aware of it when I
started this project.
202
00:15:28,674 --> 00:15:34,106
That sort of brings me to the kind of
metathesis of the book which is the end of the first chapter.
203
00:15:34,141 --> 00:15:40,192
Basically what I am arguing there is that,
there've been 3 great era of globalization, I would argue.
204
00:15:40,227 --> 00:15:43,926
The first era, try to call globalization
1.0,
205
00:15:43,961 --> 00:15:48,623
lasted from, while I would say, 1492 until
the early 1800s.
206
00:15:48,658 --> 00:15:51,900
Say, 1820 was the beginning of global
arbitrage.
207
00:15:51,935 --> 00:15:59,062
The first era of globalization 1.0 really
shrank the world from a size large to a size medium.
208
00:15:59,097 --> 00:16:04,770
That era of globalization was really
spearheaded by countries globalizing.
209
00:16:04,771 --> 00:16:08,758
You went global through your country.
210
00:16:08,793 --> 00:16:13,856
Whether it’s Spain exploring the new world,
Portugal East Asia, Britain colonizing India,
211
00:16:13,891 --> 00:16:20,416
it was countries going global for reasons
of imperialism, power, natural resources,
212
00:16:20,451 --> 00:16:24,186
but the dynamic agent of globalization in
that era
213
00:16:24,221 --> 00:16:25,761
was really the country.
214
00:16:25,762 --> 00:16:29,863
The second great era of globalization,
globalization 2.0,
215
00:16:29,898 --> 00:16:34,767
I would argue, was from early 1800s until
the year 2000. It just ended.
216
00:16:35,711 --> 00:16:39,413
And that era of globalization shrank the
world from size medium to size small.
217
00:16:39,804 --> 00:16:45,061
And that era of globalization, I would
argue, was spearheaded by companies globalizing,
218
00:16:45,096 --> 00:16:48,372
multinationals globalizing for markets and
for labor.
219
00:16:48,407 --> 00:16:53,732
And in that era of globalization, you went
global through your company.
220
00:16:53,767 --> 00:16:58,395
The company was the dynamic agent of that
era of globalization.
221
00:16:59,562 --> 00:17:03,230
What I am trying to argue in this book is:
while you were sleeping,
222
00:17:03,265 --> 00:17:06,062
We enter globalization 3.0.
223
00:17:06,097 --> 00:17:07,638
Certainly while I was sleeping.
224
00:17:07,673 --> 00:17:11,222
It is shrinking the world from size small
to size tiny,
225
00:17:11,257 --> 00:17:15,525
and flattening the global economic playing
field at the same time.
226
00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:20,430
Only what's really new, unique and
different about this era
227
00:17:20,465 --> 00:17:27,783
is that this era of globalization is not
built around countries globalizing,
228
00:17:27,818 --> 00:17:31,263
and is not built around companies
globalizing.
229
00:17:31,298 --> 00:17:41,590
What is new and unique about this era is
the degree to which it is and will continue to be built around
individuals globalizing,
230
00:17:41,625 --> 00:17:43,870
individuals and small groups.
231
00:17:43,905 --> 00:17:52,303
That is the new and unique thing about this
era is the degree to which individuals and small groups can globalize
themselves
232
00:17:52,338 --> 00:17:58,135
and increasingly must think of themselves
globally and locate themselves globally.
233
00:17:59,111 --> 00:18:00,834
And pay attention.
234
00:18:00,869 --> 00:18:03,818
This era of globalization, I would argue,
235
00:18:03,853 --> 00:18:06,816
unlike globalization 1.0 and 2.0,
236
00:18:06,851 --> 00:18:12,697
is not gonna be built exclusively around a
group of white western individuals
237
00:18:12,732 --> 00:18:14,952
who dominated the first 2 eras of
globalization.
238
00:18:14,987 --> 00:18:23,080
It's gonna be built around individuals and
small groups of every color of the rainbow who will be able to plug and
play.
239
00:18:24,010 --> 00:18:26,547
So that's the kind of the meta argument
here.
240
00:18:26,582 --> 00:18:29,505
Now the second chapter of the book, the one
that really took me the longest,
241
00:18:29,540 --> 00:18:32,683
is called "the Tens Days of Flattened
World".
242
00:18:32,718 --> 00:18:37,851
It's about the ten forces, technology and
advances I tried to build each one around a day
243
00:18:37,886 --> 00:18:42,757
that really created this level, this global
playing field.
244
00:18:43,733 --> 00:18:47,853
And let me go through what I called "The
Ten Flatteners" as quickly as I can.
245
00:18:47,888 --> 00:18:51,332
The first flattener is 11/9
246
00:18:51,367 --> 00:18:53,747
Not 9/11, 11/9.
247
00:18:53,782 --> 00:18:55,888
11/9/1989.
248
00:18:55,923 --> 00:18:59,152
11/9 is the day the Berlin Wall came down.
249
00:18:59,187 --> 00:19:02,666
Wonderful sort of cabalistic accident of
dates.
250
00:19:02,701 --> 00:19:06,741
And the fall of the wall was a huge
flattener
251
00:19:06,776 --> 00:19:12,486
because the fall of the wall allowed us to
see and think of the world as a single flat plane.
252
00:19:12,521 --> 00:19:16,781
I dare say if we look back in the archives
of MIT or the New York Times,
253
00:19:16,816 --> 00:19:22,382
we won't find a lot of people or a lot of
courses about globalization in 1970 or 1980.
254
00:19:22,417 --> 00:19:27,158
People had eastern policies and they had
western policies.
255
00:19:27,193 --> 00:19:30,046
They talked about the north and they talked
about the south,
256
00:19:30,081 --> 00:19:34,325
but no one was really talking about
globalization because there was a wall in the way.
257
00:19:34,360 --> 00:19:41,766
And the fall of the wall was a huge
flattener because it allowed us to see and think of the world as a
single flat plane.
258
00:19:43,340 --> 00:19:48,657
I call this first flattener when the walls
came down and the Windows came up
259
00:19:48,692 --> 00:19:55,858
because the Windows operating system 3.0,
the breakthrough system shifted 5 months after the fall of the Berlin
Wall
260
00:19:55,893 --> 00:19:58,610
And so those two things happened at the
same time.
261
00:20:00,099 --> 00:20:10,626
Not only the wall came down and gave us the
ability to look at the world through a single space, but we are suddenly
endowed with a kind of a single graphic user interface to all start to
look at the world through.
263
00:20:13,604 --> 00:20:17,115
That was the first flattener. The 2nd
flattener is 8/9/1995.
264
00:20:17,150 --> 00:20:22,426
I consider 8/9/1995 one of the most
important days in western civilization.
265
00:20:22,461 --> 00:20:31,257
August 9th 1995 is the date a small
start-up company in Mountain View, California called Netscape went
public.
266
00:20:31,292 --> 00:20:35,131
And Netscape is going to be the huge
flattener for 3 reasons.
267
00:20:35,166 --> 00:20:39,178
First of all, it was really the Netscape
browser
268
00:20:39,213 --> 00:20:44,866
that gave us the 1st commercial browser
that really brought the Internet alive,
269
00:20:44,901 --> 00:20:49,553
brought it alive in the way that grandma
and grandpa, grandson and granddaughter could use it,
270
00:20:49,588 --> 00:20:53,593
not just the computer scientists trained in
MIT.
271
00:20:53,628 --> 00:20:58,835
And so, the huge breakthrough of Netscape
was it, in my view, brought the Internet alive,
272
00:20:58,870 --> 00:21:09,298
as a device that people from more different
places in more different ways could connect with one another than ever
before.
273
00:21:09,333 --> 00:21:13,428
The second thing that Netscape contributed
to, certainty didn’t do it alone with
274
00:21:13,463 --> 00:21:17,537
Netscape commercialized a set of
transmission protocols based on open standard
275
00:21:17,572 --> 00:21:26,034
which help ensure that the Internet would
be interoperable and won’t be the province of any single company or
anyone’s ward garden.
276
00:21:26,069 --> 00:21:30,123
Third, the most importantly to me, Netscape
triggered the .com boom,
277
00:21:30,158 --> 00:21:32,522
and that triggered the dot com bubble.
278
00:21:32,557 --> 00:21:44,772
and that triggered the accidental,
ridiculous, absurd, outrageous, insane overinvestment, of something
closed to a trillion dollars in fiber optic cable in 5 years.
279
00:21:44,807 --> 00:21:52,751
And that crazy, absurd, ridiculous
investment of nearly a trillion dollars in fiber optic cable in 5 years
280
00:21:52,786 --> 00:21:59,904
accidentally made Beijing, Bangalore and
Bethesda, where I live, next-door neighbors,
281
00:21:59,939 --> 00:22:03,688
without anyone, anywhere planning it to
happen.
282
00:22:03,723 --> 00:22:07,000
You recall how it to place.
283
00:22:07,035 --> 00:22:09,733
Netscape went public on the morning of
1995.8.9,
284
00:22:09,768 --> 00:22:13,706
at the price of 28 dollars. That was the
opening price.
285
00:22:13,741 --> 00:22:18,893
The stock opened the day at 71, closed the
day at 56.
286
00:22:18,928 --> 00:22:27,374
And we all looked at that and said, “Wow,
there is gold over them there’re hells.”
287
00:22:28,446 --> 00:22:32,125
And so what we do? We all went out and we
brought Global Crossing,
288
00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:36,708
Nortel, Lucent.
289
00:22:36,743 --> 00:22:39,470
Come on, admit it. It was in your 4O1K.
290
00:22:40,798 --> 00:22:43,405
And those companies took our money
291
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:53,369
and our mutual funds and they laid mile
after mile of under-sea and over-land fiber optic cable.
292
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:57,162
And I only have to tell this crowd about
fiber optic cable
293
00:22:57,197 --> 00:23:03,362
that it is the gift that keeps on giving,
294
00:23:04,309 --> 00:23:13,371
Coz once it’s set in the ground, all you
have to do is to keep improving those switches at each end and you light
more and more capacities.
295
00:23:14,541 --> 00:23:20,596
And basically, that glut, that massive glut
of fiber optic cable,
296
00:23:20,631 --> 00:23:29,508
allowed suddenly more people in more places
to communicate virtually for free than ever before in the history of the
planet.
297
00:23:30,795 --> 00:23:34,771
So, that really is what the Netscape
flattener was all about.
298
00:23:34,806 --> 00:23:36,989
The third flattener I simply called
work-flow.
299
00:23:37,024 --> 00:23:44,198
And work flow is simply my catch-all for
all the software and all the standards
300
00:23:44,233 --> 00:23:52,309
that allowed work to flow, everything from
Microsoft Word ,to Microsoft Net-Meeting, to all the proprietor software
that you are right and work on in your daily work. |
|
301
00:23:52,344 --> 00:23:57,273
再一次，如果我們回到80年代的麻省理工
302
00:23:57,308 --> 00:24:02,739
入學部門可能用微軟的軟體，會計部門用Norvell
303
00:24:02,774 --> 00:24:08,272
兩個部門都比以前有效率多了，因為他們有電腦
304
00:24:08,307 --> 00:24:12,018
但這些應用程式彼此無法連結
305
00:24:12,053 --> 00:24:16,984
當然，我們知道現在還是有很多軟體彼此無法連結
306
00:24:17,019 --> 00:24:25,432
但在90年代中期的革命，讓更多的軟體可以和更多別的軟體連結
307
00:24:25,467 --> 00:24:29,401
這樣的結果，這樣的軟體革命成果
308
00:24:29,402 --> 00:24:32,577
從所謂的中間軟體到傳輸協定
309
00:24:32,612 --> 00:24:42,041
是讓人們可以史無前例的在更多事情上跟其他人合作
310
00:24:42,076 --> 00:24:46,328
當我的軟體可以和你的軟體合作時
311
00:24:46,363 --> 00:24:52,936
我們可以在虛擬空間裡史無前例的緊密合作
312
00:24:52,971 --> 00:25:00,111
我認為，在90年代中期，是所謂平坦世界的創世紀
313
00:25:00,146 --> 00:25:08,614
因為，當你考慮到Netscape革命，人們可以
史無前例的透過網路與其他人溝通
314
00:25:09,304 --> 00:25:16,599
然後，再加上軟體的革命，
史無前例的讓更多軟體可以連結別的軟體
315
00:25:16,634 --> 00:25:25,382
我們所創造出來的，就是一個足以讓全球進行合作的平台
316
00:25:25,417 --> 00:25:35,933
突然間，有更多人，
可以透過網路史無前例的在更多事務上相連結
317
00:25:35,968 --> 00:25:40,228
這對我來說，就是世界地形開始被夷平的創世紀
318
00:25:40,263 --> 00:25:46,061
接下來的六個夷平機制，則是從這個平台上產生的新合作方式
319
00:25:46,096 --> 00:25:48,829
並且繼續讓世界變得更平坦
320
00:25:48,864 --> 00:25:50,359
我很快的介紹一下它們
321
00:25:50,394 --> 00:25:52,200
第一個，當然就是外包
322
00:25:52,235 --> 00:25:55,537
外包不過僅是一種新的合作模式
323
00:25:55,572 --> 00:26:00,465
是由人與人，軟體與軟體之間的合作所促成的
324
00:26:00,500 --> 00:26:09,218
今日，如果麻省理工願意的話，可以把會計部門
委外給在這個平台上的北波士頓、北達科塔州、北邦加羅爾
325
00:26:09,253 --> 00:26:13,122
每個地區幾乎都是平等的存在
326
00:26:13,157 --> 00:26:16,103
外包是種新的合作方式
327
00:26:16,138 --> 00:26:19,312
另外一種合作方式是境外生產
328
00:26:19,347 --> 00:26:26,825
我把這些都按照時間來編排，所以外包是在2000年
而境外生產則是在中國加入世界貿易組織的時候
329
00:26:26,860 --> 00:26:29,560
將境外生產帶到了一個截然不同的等級
330
00:26:29,595 --> 00:26:34,282
我可以把我的工廠
從美國俄亥俄州的Canton，移到中國的廣東
331
00:26:34,317 --> 00:26:37,441
並且將它整合進我的全球生產體系中
332
00:26:37,476 --> 00:26:38,800
這就是境外生產
333
00:26:38,835 --> 00:26:41,713
第三種新的合作方式是開放原始碼
334
00:26:42,641 --> 00:26:48,065
開放原始碼對我來說是個動詞，是將原始碼開放的新合作方式
335
00:26:48,100 --> 00:26:53,919
是像諸位中的半數人一樣的電腦怪才，回家半夜搞著Linux作業系統
336
00:26:54,421 --> 00:26:57,215
今日Linux已經佔據了全世界15%的作業系統市場
337
00:26:57,250 --> 00:27:02,333
巴西幾個月前才宣佈，要把政府的所有作業系統換成Linux
338
00:27:02,368 --> 00:27:07,941
顯然這是全新的有創意的合作模式
339
00:27:08,885 --> 00:27:12,671
不知道微軟會怎麼想，不知道你如果是Bill
Gates會怎麼樣？
340
00:27:12,706 --> 00:27:15,003
說真的，你們有多想要成為Bill
Gates？
341
00:27:16,051 --> 00:27:22,244
舊的模式是有任何人、任何地方挑戰你，你就減價
342
00:27:23,362 --> 00:27:26,776
但是，要做到免費是很困難的
343
00:27:26,811 --> 00:27:28,407
要免費是很困難的
344
00:27:28,442 --> 00:27:38,166
你很難成為那一群願意免費在家熬夜撰寫下一代作業系統
或是下一代微軟WORD或是ADOBEACROBAT
READER的電腦怪才
345
00:27:38,201 --> 00:27:40,733
有些人這樣做是因為他們痛恨微軟
346
00:27:40,768 --> 00:27:44,037
讓我們老實說吧，很多人這樣做是因為他們恨微軟
347
00:27:44,072 --> 00:27:49,133
事實上，如果沒有微軟，會不會有開放原始碼運動
348
00:27:49,168 --> 00:27:56,030
還有其他人這樣做的原因是諸位最瞭解的：
只因為單純的科學研究
349
00:27:56,065 --> 00:27:59,366
嘿嘿，看看我想出來的這個運算法！
350
00:27:59,401 --> 00:28:03,614
看看這個升級程式，超酷的，你一定得要試一試！
351
00:28:06,133 --> 00:28:07,292
但不管他們作的原因為何
352
00:28:07,327 --> 00:28:10,773
這是全美國唯一會聽懂這種對話笑點的聽眾
353
00:28:10,808 --> 00:28:12,940
真是太好了，太棒了
354
00:28:16,018 --> 00:28:18,289
其他人只會坐在那邊：這傢伙在瞎扯什麼啊！
355
00:28:20,794 --> 00:28:22,448
不管他們這樣作的原因為何
356
00:28:22,483 --> 00:28:26,992
就像Firefox一樣，這是一種全新的合作方式
357
00:28:27,027 --> 00:28:33,047
Firefox是一個19歲的Stanford大學生
和另一個24歲的New
Zealand人合作出來的產品
358
00:28:33,082 --> 00:28:35,735
他們至今還沒碰過面
359
00:28:35,770 --> 00:28:40,025
在一天內，抱歉，是一個月內被下載了一千萬次
360
00:28:40,060 --> 00:28:43,279
一個月就搶佔了微軟的IE百分之五的市場
361
00:28:43,314 --> 00:28:48,007
所以，這是一種極為強力的合作模式
362
00:28:48,042 --> 00:28:54,447
而我今天有榮幸瞭解的麻省理工學院開放式課程計畫
363
00:28:54,482 --> 00:28:56,375
就正好是另一種表現
364
00:28:56,376 --> 00:29:00,615
我認為，這是一個極為有力的創意發展
365
00:29:00,650 --> 00:29:02,305
只要世界變得越平坦就越有力
366
00:29:02,340 --> 00:29:07,642
第四種新的合作方式我叫做供應鍊化
367
00:29:07,677 --> 00:29:09,987
供應鍊化就是Wal-Mart所做的
368
00:29:11,731 --> 00:29:16,547
那就是將全球供應鍊效率徹底提升到每一個要素上
369
00:29:17,476 --> 00:29:22,760
所以，如果你從Brookline鎮的Wal-Mart架上拿下一個產品
另一個產品就會在中國深圳被製造出來
370
00:29:22,795 --> 00:29:26,721
如果Wal-Mart是個國家，
它將會是今日中國第八大的貿易對象
371
00:29:26,756 --> 00:29:28,961
甚至領先加拿大和澳洲
372
00:29:29,729 --> 00:29:36,208
我在此的朋友Yossi
Sheffi教過我有關供應鍊的知識
373
00:29:36,243 --> 00:29:42,054
他有句話說的很好：製造東西？製造東西很簡單。
374
00:29:42,089 --> 00:29:45,455
設計和布置供應鍊，那才是真正困難的地方
375
00:29:47,437 --> 00:29:50,094
他說：想想Wal-Mart
376
00:29:50,954 --> 00:29:55,380
Wal-Mart是美國最大的公司，但他們卻什麼都不製造
377
00:29:56,693 --> 00:30:01,850
只是將供應鍊效率徹底提升到每一個要素上
378
00:30:01,885 --> 00:30:03,892
一種全新的合作模式
379
00:30:03,927 --> 00:30:07,306
第五種新的合作模式我叫它作內包（委內）
380
00:30:07,341 --> 00:30:09,572
UPS所做的就叫做內包
381
00:30:09,607 --> 00:30:13,035
你知道那些開著可笑褐色卡車，穿著可笑褐色短褲的人
382
00:30:14,075 --> 00:30:19,994
如果你以為他們作的僅只是送包裹，那你就太過大意了
383
00:30:21,159 --> 00:30:23,984
他們現在在作什麼？在他們的卡車上有暗示
384
00:30:24,019 --> 00:30:27,697
現在寫著，「同步你的世界」
385
00:30:27,732 --> 00:30:30,470
因為現在UPS的工作包括了公司內勤運輸
386
00:30:30,896 --> 00:30:37,941
他們來到你的總部，也就是接管你總部（脖子）以下的
所有內勤運輸，我稱這為內包
387
00:30:39,067 --> 00:30:41,334
假設你有一台Toshiba筆記型電腦
388
00:30:41,369 --> 00:30:45,432
而它壞了，所以你就看保證書，上面寫著要打1-800-HELP
389
00:30:45,467 --> 00:30:46,801
所以你就打了1-800-HELP
390
00:30:46,836 --> 00:30:49,633
然後他們告訴你，
把你的Toshiba筆記型電腦送到附近的UPS快遞點
391
00:30:49,668 --> 00:30:52,408
把它送給我們，我們會在72小時之內送還
392
00:30:52,443 --> 00:30:53,616
你所不知道的是...
393
00:30:53,651 --> 00:31:00,123
你的Toshiba電腦從那家店，
到Kentuky州的Louisville機場UPS物流中心
394
00:31:00,158 --> 00:31:04,098
在當地Louisville機場的機庫無塵室中，
395
00:31:04,133 --> 00:31:08,201
你的Toshiba筆記型電腦是由UPS的員工來修復
396
00:31:08,236 --> 00:31:11,168
它永遠不需要真正接觸Toshiba的部門
397
00:31:11,203 --> 00:31:14,505
Toshiba已經把這部分完全內包給UPS
398
00:31:14,540 --> 00:31:19,160
Nike.com，你想要找雙新鞋穿，到Nike.com上看看
399
00:31:19,195 --> 00:31:24,624
你所不知道的是，螢幕的另一端是個穿著可笑褐色短褲的人
400
00:31:25,928 --> 00:31:33,679
他收到你的訂單，從UPS管理的Nike倉庫取出鞋子和包裝
|
301
00:23:52,344 --> 00:23:57,273
Again I will go back to MIT probably in
the, sometime in the 80s.
302
00:23:57,308 --> 00:24:02,739
You know the admissions department would be
probably running the Microsoft, the bookkeeping department was running
Novell.
303
00:24:02,774 --> 00:24:08,272
Both departments were much more efficient
because they had computers,
304
00:24:08,307 --> 00:24:12,018
but applications did not connect to
applications.
305
00:24:12,053 --> 00:24:16,984
Now, a lot of applications still don’t
connect applications, we certainly know that.
306
00:24:17,019 --> 00:24:25,432
But over the 90s, there was a revolution in
software that has connected a lot of more applications with a lot of
more other applications,
307
00:24:25,467 --> 00:24:29,401
and the net result of that created
revolution from middle ware to
308
00:24:29,402 --> 00:24:32,5
all kinds of transmission protocols.
309
00:24:32,612 --> 00:24:42,041
The net result of that is that people are
able to work together with other people on more stuff than ever before.
310
00:24:42,076 --> 00:24:46,328
When my applications can work with your
applications virtually that we don’t have to think about it,
311
00:24:46,363 --> 00:24:52,936
it means that we can work together like
never before.
312
00:24:52,971 --> 00:25:00,111
And this, I would argue, some point in the
mid 1990s was what I called the genesis moment of the flat world,
313
00:25:00,146 --> 00:25:08,614
because when you take that Netscape
revolution, people able to connect with people over a network like never
before,
314
00:25:09,304 --> 00:25:16,599
and then you take the revolution in
software of more and more applications connecting to more other
applications than never before,
315
00:25:16,634 --> 00:25:25,382
what we created, willy-nilly, was a global
platform for multiple forms of collaboration.
316
00:25:25,417 --> 00:25:35,933
Suddenly more people could collaborate and
connect on more stuff than ever before in the history of the world.
317
00:25:35,968 --> 00:25:40,228
And that, to me, was the genesis moment for
the flattening of the world.
318
00:25:40,263 --> 00:25:46,061
Now the next six flatteners are the new
forms of collaboration
31900:25:46,096 --> 00:25:48,829
that sprang from this platform and have
come back to flatten the world even more.
320
00:25:48,864 --> 00:25:50,359
I’ll go through them quickly.
321
00:25:50,394 --> 00:25:52,200
The first of course is ‘outsourcing’.
322
00:25:52,235 --> 00:25:55,537 Outsourcing
is just a new form of collaboration
323
00:25:55,572 --> 00:26:00,465
empowered by this platform of people to
people and application to application.
324
00:26:00,500 --> 00:26:09,218
Now, MIT, if it wants to, can out-source
the whole bookkeeping department to North Boston, North Dakota or North
Bangalore.
325
00:26:09,253 --> 00:26:13,122
Of this platform either one would be almost
equally easy.
326
00:26:13,157 --> 00:26:16,103
Outsourcing, a new form of collaboration.
327
00:26:16,138 --> 00:26:19,312
The next new form of collaboration is
‘Off-shoring.’
328
00:26:19,347 --> 00:26:26,825
I build each of these around the dates, so
out-sourcing was built around Y2K, off-shoring was built around when
China joined the World Trade Organization
32900:26:26,860 --> 00:26:29,560
which takes off-shoring to a whole new
level.
330
00:26:29,595 --> 00:26:34,282
Now I take my whole factory from Canton,
Ohio and I move it to Canton in China
331
00:26:34,317 --> 00:26:37,441
and integrate it into my global production
system-
332
00:26:37,476 --> 00:26:38,800
off-shoring.
333
00:26:38,835 --> 00:26:41,713
Third new form of collaboration is
open-sourcing.
334
00:26:42,641 --> 00:26:48,065
‘Open-source’, to me, is a verb. It’s
open-sourcing. It is actually a new form of collaboration
335
00:26:48,100 --> 00:26:53,919
It’s a bunch of geeks like half of you,
sitting at home, working on the LINUX operating system
336
00:26:54,421 --> 00:26:57,215
which todaythe day has 15% of global OS
market.
337
00:26:57,250 --> 00:27:02,333 Brazil just
announced a couple month ago. It’s converting the whole Brazilian
government to LINUX.
338
00:27:02,368 --> 00:27:07,941
This is a whole new form of collaboration
obviously, and innovation.
339
00:27:08,885 --> 00:27:12,671
And you know then, how it likes to be
Microsoft, how it makes Bill Gates.
340
00:27:12,706 --> 00:27:15,003
And how would you like to be Bill Gates?
341
00:27:16,051 --> 00:27:22,244
So, your old model: if anyone challenges
you and you undercut them on price.
342
00:27:23,362 --> 00:27:26,776
And, it’s hard to be free.
343
00:27:26,811 --> 00:27:28,407
It’s hard to be free
344
00:27:28,442 --> 00:27:38,166
It’s hard to be a bunch of geeks sitting at
home writing the next operation system or the next version of Microsoft
Word or Adobe Acrobat for free.
345
00:27:38,201 --> 00:27:40,733
Some doing it because they hate Microsoft.
346
00:27:40,768 --> 00:27:44,037
And let’s be honest, many doing it because
they hate Microsoft.
347
00:27:44,072 --> 00:27:49,133
That’s just a question: whether there’ll be
an open source movement if there were no Microsoft.
348
00:27:49,168 --> 00:27:56,030
And many others doing it for all the
reasons you, this crowd understands the best, which is the purest view
of science of it.
349
00:27:56,065 --> 00:27:59,366
“Look at this algorithm I came up with,
350
00:27:59,401 --> 00:28:03,614
look at this patch, this is so cool, you
gotta try this.”
351
00:28:06,133 --> 00:28:07,292
But whatever reason they are doing it…
352
00:28:07,327 --> 00:28:10,773
This is only crowd in America who laughs at
this line.
353
00:28:10,808 --> 00:28:12,940
It is so good, it is great!
354
00:28:16,018 --> 00:28:18,289
Other people just sit there. ‘What’s he
talking about?”
355
00:28:20,794 --> 00:28:22,448
But for whatever reason they are doing it,
356
00:28:22,483 --> 00:28:26,992
this, to me, is a whole new form of
collaborate. Firefox.
357
00:28:27,027 --> 00:28:33,047
Here is web browser produced by a 19-year
old at Stanford along with a 24 year old from New Zealand
358
00:28:33,082 --> 00:28:35,735
who had never met yet.
359
00:28:35,770 --> 00:28:40,025
And, you know in one month, it has been
downloaded 10 million times!
360
00:28:40,060 --> 00:28:43,279
Takes 5% of Microsoft Explorer’s market in
a month.
361
00:28:43,314 --> 00:28:48,007
So this is an incredibly powerful new form
of collaboration.
362
00:28:48,042 --> 00:28:54,447
And the Open University at MIT is doing
which I had a pleasure of learning all about today.
363
00:28:54,482 --> 00:28:56,375
It’s just another expression of this
364
00:28:56,376 --> 00:29:00,615
and it is going to be, I think, incredibly
powerful form of innovation.
365
00:29:00,650 --> 00:29:02,305
The flatter the world gets.
366
00:29:02,340 --> 00:29:07,642
The 4th new form of collaboration, I called
‘supply chaining.’
367
00:29:07,677 --> 00:29:09,987
Supply chaining is what Wal-Mart does,
368
00:29:11,731 --> 00:29:16,547
i.e. designing a global supply chain down
to the last atom of efficiency.
369
00:29:17,476 --> 00:29:22,760
So, you take an item off the shelf from the
Wal-Mart in Brooklyn, and another is immediately made in Shenzhen,
China.
370
00:29:22,795 --> 00:29:26,721
If Wal-Mart were a country, it would be
China’s 8th largest trading partner today,
371
00:29:26,756 --> 00:29:28,961
ahead of Canada and Australia.
372
00:29:29,729 --> 00:29:36,208
And my friend Yossi Sheffi who’s here has
taught me something about supply chain.
373
00:29:36,243 --> 00:29:42,054
And he has a nice saying, which is that:
〃Making
stuff? Making stuff. That is easy.
374
00:29:42,089 --> 00:29:45,455
Supply chain? That’s really hard.
375
00:29:47,437 --> 00:29:50,094
Think about Wal-Mart” as he said.
376
00:29:50,954 --> 00:29:55,380
Wal-Mart is the biggest company in America,
and they don’t make anything.
377
00:29:56,693 --> 00:30:01,850
Just a supply chain, down to the last atom
of efficiency.
378
00:30:01,885 --> 00:30:03,892
Whole new form of collaboration.
379
00:30:03,927 --> 00:30:07,306
The fifth new form of collaboration I
called ‘in-sourcing.’
380
00:30:07,341 --> 00:30:09,572
In-sourcing is what UPS does.
381
00:30:09,607 --> 00:30:13,035
You know the people in the funny brown
trucks in the funny brown shorts.
382
00:30:14,075 --> 00:30:19,994
If you think all they’re doing is
delivering packages, you are not paying attention.
383
00:30:21,159 --> 00:30:23,984
There’s a little hint of what they are up
to is on the side of their truck now.
384
00:30:24,019 --> 00:30:27,697
It simply says ‘Your world synchronized.”
385
00:30:27,732 --> 00:30:30,470
Coz what UPS does now is internal
logistics.
386
00:30:30,896 --> 00:30:37,941
They come into your company, right up to
your neck, right up to headquarters, and take over your entire, internal
logistics. That’s I called in-sourcing.
387
00:30:39,067 --> 00:30:41,334
So you have a Toshiba laptop
388
00:30:41,369 --> 00:30:45,432
and it breaks, and you go to your warranty,
and it says called 1-800-HELP.
389
00:30:45,467 --> 00:30:46,801
You called 1-800-HELP
390
00:30:46,836 --> 00:30:49,633
and they tell you take your Toshiba laptop
to the UPS store
391
00:30:49,668 --> 00:30:52,408
and send it to us and had it back to in 72
hours.
392
00:30:52,443 --> 00:30:53,616
Here’s what you don’t know.
393
00:30:53,651 --> 00:31:00,123
Your Toshiba laptop goes from the UPS store
to the UPS hub at Louisville airport in Kentucky
394
00:31:00,158 --> 00:31:04,098
where in an airline hanger at Louisville
airport, in a clean room,
395
00:31:04,133 --> 00:31:08,201
your Toshiba laptop is repaired by a UPS
employee.
396
00:31:08,236 --> 00:31:11,168
It never touches Toshiba’s hands.
397
00:31:11,203 --> 00:31:14,505
Toshiba has in-sourced that entirely to
UPS.
398
00:31:14,540 --> 00:31:19,160
Nike.com. You wanna get the kids a new pair
of sneakers. You go on-line Nike.com.
399
00:31:19,195 --> 00:31:24,624
What you don’t know is on the other side of
the screen, there’s someone in funny brown shorts
400 00:31:25,928 --> 00:31:33,679
who is taking down your order, picking and
packing the shoes from the Nike w house that UPS manages,
|
|
401
00:31:33,714 --> 00:31:37,712
而且把東西送到你手中，以UPS的名義來收錢
402
00:31:37,747 --> 00:31:40,025
當你看到Pappa
John's的披薩卡車經過的時候
403
00:31:41,025 --> 00:31:42,050
猜猜看是誰在開車？
404
00:31:43,485 --> 00:31:47,161
跟我說一遍，是穿著褐色可笑短褲的人在開車
405
00:31:47,196 --> 00:31:55,795
因為Pappa
John's將它們的麵團
從中央廚房運送到門市的過程內包給UPS
406
00:31:55,830 --> 00:31:58,010
這也是一個全新模式的合作
407
00:31:58,045 --> 00:32:02,609
他的分工變得越微型，你就必須有越多標準化的作業
408
00:32:02,644 --> 00:32:06,166
慢慢的，這將會成為極為重要的夷平機制
409
00:32:06,201 --> 00:32:11,530
現今可能有數百，甚至數千家公司再也不碰觸他們的商品了
410
00:32:11,565 --> 00:32:17,529
他們不過只是一個行銷空殼，將內部的所有內勤運送都內包給UPS
411
00:32:18,290 --> 00:32:22,498
第六個到最後的夷平機制我稱呼為資訊流通化
412
00:32:22,533 --> 00:32:25,241
我就是以資訊流通化來稱呼Google的
413
00:32:25,276 --> 00:32:27,713
也是我稱呼網路搜尋的方式
414
00:32:27,748 --> 00:32:33,873
因為我現在可以只靠著我自己獲取資訊，獲取情報
415
00:32:34,585 --> 00:32:37,673
TiVo的隨選錄影是一種娛樂的資訊流通化
416
00:32:37,708 --> 00:32:41,513
資訊流通化是一種極為有力的合作模式
417
00:32:41,514 --> 00:32:47,344
讓我們回顧一下，
前三個創造了一個讓各種合作模式可以運作的平台
418
00:32:47,379 --> 00:32:55,215
然後接下來的六個新合作模式：
外包、境外生產、開放原始碼、供應鍊化、內包、資訊流通化
419
00:32:55,250 --> 00:32:56,593
這樣是九個
420
00:32:56,628 --> 00:32:58,922
第十個是什麼？我說過有十個
421
00:32:59,841 --> 00:33:03,994
在書中，我認為第十個應該被稱作活化劑
422
00:33:04,029 --> 00:33:11,010
這活化劑是無線化、網路語音傳輸和檔案分享
423
00:33:11,907 --> 00:33:14,042
這些活化劑的功能是
424
00:33:14,077 --> 00:33:19,289
是將這所有的六種新合作模式超頻推動
425
00:33:19,892 --> 00:33:27,002
所以讓我可以在任何地方、
任何地點、任何時間，完全機動的運作
426
00:33:27,818 --> 00:33:33,865
這是第二章，也就是我認為夷平世界的十個力量
427
00:33:34,546 --> 00:33:39,769
在講完第三章之後我就結束，
第三章是想要將最基本的想法整合在一起
428
00:33:40,506 --> 00:33:42,403
第三章我稱作三次機緣巧合的匯流
429
00:33:42,438 --> 00:33:45,856
基本上我的看法是，在2000年時
430
00:33:45,891 --> 00:33:52,963
有三次機緣的匯流，塑造了我所認為的二十一世紀簡史
431
00:33:52,998 --> 00:33:58,197
我認為，第一次的匯流是這十個夷平機制的會合
432
00:33:58,232 --> 00:33:59,707
就在2000年時
433
00:33:59,742 --> 00:34:06,634
其力量匯聚成了一個轉捩點，彼此之間更互相作用、互相補強
434
00:34:06,669 --> 00:34:11,651
所以，資訊流通化協助了外包，外包協助了境外生產
435
00:34:11,686 --> 00:34:19,883
開放原始碼驅動了內包，
所有這十個夷平機制的互補力量都開始彼此合作
436
00:34:20,874 --> 00:34:22,354
當這事情發生時
437
00:34:23,130 --> 00:34:25,458
它們創造了一個平坦的世界
438
00:34:25,493 --> 00:34:27,067
我所指的平坦世界是：
439
00:34:27,102 --> 00:34:40,979
它們創造了網路連結的全球平台，不論時間、距離、地形，
甚至語言，讓各種模式的工作和知識得以分享與分配
440
00:34:41,014 --> 00:34:43,612
這就是我口中世界是平的的意義
441
00:34:43,647 --> 00:34:49,882
我是說，
我們創造了一個全球網路平台來分享知識和分配工作
442
00:34:49,917 --> 00:34:55,898
不受時間、距離、地形的限制，
甚至也越來越不受語言的限制
443
00:34:55,933 --> 00:34:58,181
我相信那個平台
444
00:34:58,216 --> 00:35:05,667
如果你把那個平台納入考量，
你就可以明白更多今日世界發生的事情
445
00:35:05,702 --> 00:35:09,290
遠勝過用任何其他的框架去衡量
446
00:35:09,325 --> 00:35:14,154
你可以解釋能源需求的上升，你可以解釋外包的增加
447
00:35:14,189 --> 00:35:18,338
你也可以解釋麻省理工的開放式課程
448
00:35:20,618 --> 00:35:23,561
你也可以解釋911事件和Al-Qaeda
449
00:35:24,226 --> 00:35:31,025
所以，第一次的匯集是這些創造出全球平台的力量匯集
450
00:35:31,060 --> 00:35:33,864
越來越多的人可以隨插隨用這個平台
451
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:38,328
第二次匯集，我們正在經歷它的開端
452
00:35:38,363 --> 00:35:42,088
是我們每個人都必須學著去平行化我們自己
453
00:35:42,123 --> 00:35:47,216
我們都必須改變我們的商業習慣、學習習慣
454
00:35:47,251 --> 00:35:51,567
必須有創意的修正它們去適應這個新平台
455
00:35:51,602 --> 00:35:57,664
因為，我們正離開
一個以垂直方式的控制與指揮的儲藏庫來創造價值的世界
456
00:35:57,699 --> 00:36:03,873
而變成一個因你和什麼人有連結、
和什麼人合作來創造價值的世界
457
00:36:03,908 --> 00:36:08,729
我們正位在這改變的前緣，一切正從垂直變得水平
458
00:36:09,346 --> 00:36:11,272
我想，瞭解這最好的方式是
459
00:36:11,307 --> 00:36:16,202
Stanford的經濟學家Paul
David寫了一篇很棒的文章
460
00:36:16,237 --> 00:36:18,195
我想你們很多人應該要去讀的一篇有關電力的文章
461
00:36:18,196 --> 00:36:23,347
他問了一個問題：當電力首次出現的時候，
為什麼我們的生產力沒有突然增加
462
00:36:23,348 --> 00:36:25,412
他所研究的結果是
463
00:36:25,447 --> 00:36:29,867
要獲得電力馬達取代蒸汽引擎的生產力提升
464
00:36:29,902 --> 00:36:31,940
我們必須先重新設計建築
465
00:36:31,975 --> 00:36:36,204
高大的多層建築物，可以容納蒸汽引擎和各種滑輪
466
00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:42,134
改成小型的低矮建築，讓工廠可用電力馬達運轉
467
00:36:42,169 --> 00:36:45,639
管理者必須要改變他們的管理方法
468
00:36:45,674 --> 00:36:48,448
建築師得要適應和修正新建築的設計
469
00:36:48,483 --> 00:36:52,391
車間管理員得要修正他們的管理方式
470
00:36:52,426 --> 00:36:56,996
有數以百萬計的習慣和結構必須要改變
471
00:36:57,031 --> 00:37:00,339
一旦他們在某個轉捩點作了改變，轟的一聲
472
00:37:00,374 --> 00:37:04,827
那我們才能真正的獲得電力所導致的生產力大幅提昇
473
00:37:04,862 --> 00:37:14,549
我認為，我們也正如同電力的改變一樣，
正好在水平的平台上，正學著改變自己的習慣，將自己水平化
474
00:37:15,526 --> 00:37:19,813
事實上，我是在寫這書時，非常個人的狀況下發現的
475
00:37:19,848 --> 00:37:22,293
我住在Maryland州，Bethesda
476
00:37:22,328 --> 00:37:26,989
我的女兒是大二的學生，她在Connectiuct州New
Haven讀書
477
00:37:27,024 --> 00:37:29,622
我去年三月準備要去看她
478
00:37:29,657 --> 00:37:36,055
要從Maryland的Bethesda
要去Connectiuct的New
Haven實在是有夠麻煩的
479
00:37:36,090 --> 00:37:40,822
你得要開車從Bethesda到Baltimore的BWI機場
480
00:37:40,857 --> 00:37:44,622
搭乘Southwest航空到Hartford
481
00:37:44,657 --> 00:37:47,688
然後開車一小時從Hartford到New
Haven
482
00:37:47,723 --> 00:37:52,233
我去年春天去的時候帶了兩個包包和衣服給我女兒
483
00:37:54,869 --> 00:37:57,929
我準備搭Southwest航空去，我很喜歡Southwest航空
484
00:37:57,964 --> 00:38:01,954
諸位可能沒坐過Southwest航空，但它是沒有保留機位的
485
00:38:01,989 --> 00:38:06,096
你只會拿到一張機票，上面寫著A、B或C
486
00:38:06,888 --> 00:38:09,671
你絕對不會想要Southwest航空上坐C的位置
487
00:38:09,706 --> 00:38:13,781
特別是當你帶了兩個大袋子要給女兒的時候
488
00:38:13,816 --> 00:38:17,183
還有東西你想要放在頭上的位置上，而不是底下的位置
489
00:38:17,218 --> 00:38:18,906
特別是這樣的時候你根本就不想是B，你想要是A
490
00:38:19,562 --> 00:38:24,481
沒問題，我很酷，所以我用了Southwest的電子機票
491
00:38:24,516 --> 00:38:28,287
而且我在起飛前95分鐘就到了BWI機場
492
00:38:28,322 --> 00:38:30,736
因為我想要坐A的位置，沒人想要坐B
493
00:38:31,739 --> 00:38:35,561
所以，我到了Southwest的電子機票機前，插入我的VISA卡
494
00:38:35,596 --> 00:38:38,569
我的機票出來了，上面竟然寫著B！
495
00:38:39,465 --> 00:38:46,536
我說：媽的，這東西被動過手腳，有問題，比賭城還糟糕！
496
00:38:46,571 --> 00:38:49,039
我絕不可能拿到B！
497
00:38:49,074 --> 00:38:53,305
我在起飛前95分鐘就到了，我絕不可能拿到B！
498
00:38:57,305 --> 00:39:00,448
當我拿著我的肉桂麵包，站在B的隊伍中時
499
00:39:00,483 --> 00:39:03,832
呼，我有夠生氣的！
500
00:39:05,639 --> 00:39:09,350
我站在B的隊伍裡面不爽了一小時
|
401
00:31:33,714 --> 00:31:37,712
and shipping them to you and collecting the
money on behalves of UPS.
402
00:31:37,747 --> 00:31:40,025
See the Pappa John’s pizza truck go by.
403
00:31:41,025 --> 00:31:42,050
Guess who’s driving?
404
00:31:43,485 --> 00:31:47,161
Say it with me now: someone in funny brown
shorts!
405
00:31:47,196 --> 00:31:55,795
Because Pappa John has in-sourced the
delivery of their dough from the bakery to their outlets to UPS.
406
00:31:55,830 --> 00:31:58,010
So this is a whole new form of
collaboration.
407
00:31:58,045 --> 00:32:02,609
It requires more micro you get a huge
amount of standardization and, as a result, you’e going to be a huge
flattener over time.
408
00:32:02,644 --> 00:32:06,166
There are hundred, probably thousand
companies today
409
00:32:06,201 --> 00:32:11,530
that no longer touches any of their
products.
410
00:32:11,565 --> 00:32:17,529
They are nothing but marketing shelves, who
have in-sourced, basically their inners, to UPS.
411 00:32:18,290 --> 00:32:22,498
The sixth and the last new form of
collaboration, I called ‘informing’.
412
00:32:22,533 --> 00:32:25,241
Informing, and that is my name for Google.
413
00:32:25,276 --> 00:32:27,713
That is my name for search
414
00:32:27,748 --> 00:32:33,873
because I can now inform myself, I can
collaborate with data all by myself.
415
00:32:34,585 --> 00:32:37,673
TIVO is a form of informing for
entertainment
416
00:32:37,708 --> 00:32:41,513
and informing is a powerful new form of
collaboration.
417
00:32:41,514 --> 00:32:47,344
So just to review. We have the first three,
they’ve created this platform for multiple forms of collaboration,
418
00:32:47,379 --> 00:32:55,215
then we have the next six new forms of
collaboration: out-sourcing, off-shoring, open-sourcing,
supply-chaining, in-sourcing and informing.
419
00:32:55,250 --> 00:32:56,593
That’s nine.
420
00:32:56,628 --> 00:32:58,922
What’s the tenth? I said, “There are ten.”
421
00:32:59,841 --> 00:33:03,994
I argue in the book, that the tenth, I
simply called ‘the steroids’,
422
00:33:04,029 --> 00:33:11,010
and the steroids are wireless voice over
the Internet and file sharing.
423
00:33:11,907 --> 00:33:14,042
And what these steroids are doing
424
00:33:14,077 --> 00:33:19,289
is now turbo-charging all six of these new
form of collaboration,
425
00:33:19,892 --> 00:33:27,002
so I can now do anyone from anywhere with
any device, totally mobile.
426
00:33:27,818 --> 00:33:33,865
So, that’s the 2nd chapter, and that’s the
argument about what I considered to be the 10 forces that flattened the
world.
427
00:33:34,546 --> 00:33:39,769
Now, the third chapter and I will stop.
After these trials to tie together these base arguments.
428
00:33:40,506 --> 00:33:42,403
The third chapter is called ‘The Triple
Convergences.’
429
00:33:42,438 --> 00:33:45,856
So basically what I argue is that sometime
around the year 2000
430 00:33:45,891 --> 00:33:52,963
there were three huge convergences which
all came together to really shape the brief history of the 21st century.
431
00:33:52,998 --> 00:33:58,197
The first convergence, I would argue, is
all ten of these flatteners converged,
432
00:33:58,232 --> 00:33:59,707
right around the year 2000,
433
00:33:59,742 --> 00:34:06,634
converged into a tipping point with a
complementarity between them. All started to work together.
434
00:34:06,669 --> 00:34:11,651
So the informing helped the out-sourcing,
the out-sourcing help the off-shoring.
435
00:34:11,686 --> 00:34:19,883
The open-sourcing drove the in-sourcing.
All the complementarities between these ten flatteners started to work
together,
436 00:34:20,874 --> 00:34:22,354
and when they did,
437
00:34:23,130 --> 00:34:25,458
they created the flat world.
438
00:34:25,493 --> 00:34:27,067
What do I mean by the flat world?
439
00:34:27,102 --> 00:34:40,979
They created a global web-enabled platform
for multiple forms of sharing knowledge and work, irrespective of time,
distance, geography or even, increasingly, language.
440
00:34:41,014 --> 00:34:43,612
That’s what I mean when I say ‘the world is
flat’.
441
00:34:43,647 --> 00:34:49,882
I mean we have created a global,
web-enabled platform for multiple forms of sharing knowledge and work,
442
00:34:49,917 --> 00:34:55,898
irrespective of time, distance, geography,
and, increasingly, even language.
443
00:34:55,933 --> 00:34:58,181
And I believe that platform.
444
00:34:58,216 --> 00:35:05,667
If you think about that platform, you can
explain more things about what’s happening in the world today
445
00:35:05,702 --> 00:35:09,290
than with any other framework.
446
00:35:09,325 --> 00:35:14,154
You can explain the rise in energy, and you
can explain the rise in out-sourcing,
447
00:35:14,189 --> 00:35:18,338
or you can explain MIT’S Open Course.
448
00:35:20,618 --> 00:35:23,561
And you can explain 911 and Al-Qaeda.
449
00:35:24,226 --> 00:35:31,025
So, that first convergence is what
flattened the world by producing this new platform
450
00:35:31,060 --> 00:35:33,864
that more people than ever can plug and
play on.
451
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:38,328
The 2nd convergence is that we’re just at
the beginning of this
452
00:35:38,363 --> 00:35:42,088
is that we all having to learn to
horizontalize ourselves,
453
00:35:42,123 --> 00:35:47,216
i.e. we’re all having to learn to adapt our
business processes, our study habits,
454
00:35:47,251 --> 00:35:51,567
our innovative approaches to this new
platform.
455
00:35:51,602 --> 00:35:57,664
Coz we’re going from a world where values
were created in vertical silos largely of command and control,
456
00:35:57,699 --> 00:36:03,873
to a world where the values would be
created increasing horizontally by who you connect and collaborate with.
457
00:36:03,908 --> 00:36:08,729
We’re just at the beginning of making all
these changes from vertical to horizontal.
458
00:36:09,346 --> 00:36:11,272
Now, the best way to understanding this is,
I think…
459
00:36:11,307 --> 00:36:16,202
Paul David, a Stanford economics had a
remarkable essay,
460
00:36:16,237 --> 00:36:18,195
I’m sure many of you have to read, on
electrification.
461
00:36:18,196 --> 00:36:23,347
And he asked a question: why was when
electricity first appeared, we didn’t get a productivity boost.
462
00:36:23,348 --> 00:36:25,412
And the answer that he’s looked into was
463
00:36:25,447 --> 00:36:29,867
because to get the actual productivity
boost from electric motors replacing steam engines,
464
00:36:29,902 --> 00:36:31,940
we had to first redesign buildings:
465
00:36:31,975 --> 00:36:36,204
from tall multistory buildings that could
accommodate big steam engines with their pulleys,
466
00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:42,134
To small and lower long buildings that with
a factory could operate small electric motors.
467
00:36:42,169 --> 00:36:45,639
And the managers had to adapt their
management practices.
468
00:36:45,674 --> 00:36:48,448
After architects adapted the way that
buildings are looked,
469
00:36:48,483 --> 00:36:52,391
and then shop floor stewards had to adapt
how they manage the shop floor.
470
00:36:52,426 --> 00:36:56,996
So there were a million different habits
and structures that had to change.
471
00:36:57,031 --> 00:37:00,339
And, boom, once they changed at a tipping
point,
472
00:37:00,374 --> 00:37:04,827
then we really got the productivity boost
from the electrification.
473
00:37:04,862 --> 00:37:14,549
I would argue we’re just at the beginning
of doing the same thing with this horizontal platform. We’re just at
the beginning of changing our habits- horizontalizing ourselves.
474
00:37:15,526 --> 00:37:19,813
I keep discovering it in a very personal
way, when I was working on the book.
475
00:37:19,848 --> 00:37:22,293
I live in Bethesda in Maryland.
476
00:37:22,328 --> 00:37:26,989
And my daughter, my oldest daughter was a
sophomore goes to a school in New Haven, Connecticut.
477
00:37:27,024 --> 00:37:29,622
I was going to visit her last March.
478
00:37:29,657 --> 00:37:36,055
It’s a complete pain in the behind to go
from the Bethesda, Maryland to New Haven, Connecticut.
479
00:37:36,090 --> 00:37:40,822
You have to drive from Bethesda to BWI
airport in Baltimore,
480
00:37:40,857 --> 00:37:44,622
take Southwest Aairline from Baltimore to
Hartford,
481
00:37:44,657 --> 00:37:47,688
and then drive from Hartford for an hour to
New Haven.
482
00:37:47,723 --> 00:37:52,233
I promised to going up last spring, taking
two bags of spring clothes for my daughter
483
00:37:54,869 --> 00:37:57,929
and I was go on Southwest.
484
00:37:57,964 --> 00:38:01,954
I know you may not have flown on Southwest,
but you may know on Southwest, you don’t get a reserved seat.
485
00:38:01,989 --> 00:38:06,096
You just get a ticket and says A, B or C.
486
00:38:06,888 --> 00:38:09,671
You do not want to be a C on Southwest
Airline.
487
00:38:09,706 --> 00:38:13,781
Especially if you bring 2 bags to your
daughter
488
00:38:13,816 --> 00:38:17,183
of the stuff that you want room above the
seat, not get stuck in the middle.
489
00:38:17,218 --> 00:38:18,906
You won’t want to be a B, you wanna be A.
490
00:38:19,562 --> 00:38:24,481
No problem, I am a hip guy, so I did the
e-ticket thing on Southwest.
491
00:38:24,516 --> 00:38:28,287
And I got to BWI airport 95 minutes before
my flight,
492
00:38:28,322 --> 00:38:30,736
coz I wanna be an A. No one’s gonna be B.
493
00:38:31,739 --> 00:38:35,561
So, I got to the Southwest Airline machine,
stuck in my visa card and out came my ticket.
494
00:38:35,596 --> 00:38:38,569
And it said B.
495
00:38:39,465 --> 00:38:46,536
I said, son of a ___!! This thing is fixed!
This is rig! This is worse than Las Vegas!
496
00:38:46,571 --> 00:38:49,039
There is no way I am a B!
497
00:38:49,074 --> 00:38:53,305
I am here 95 minutes before this flight ,
there’s no way I am a B!
498
00:38:57,305 --> 00:39:00,448
When I get my cinnabon, and stood in the
back of the B line,
499
00:39:00,483 --> 00:39:03,832
woo, I’m mad.
500
00:39:05,639 --> 00:39:09,350
Well I stood at the back of the B line for
an hour.
|
|
501
00:39:10,413 --> 00:39:11,975
然後他們開始登機了
502
00:39:12,887 --> 00:39:14,504
然後我看見了
503
00:39:14,539 --> 00:39:25,544
所有的A登機時都拿著我看起來像是家裡印表機印出來的皺紙
504
00:39:26,305 --> 00:39:36,884
原來這些傢伙都在前一天晚上12:01
在家裡下載並且印出了自己的登機牌和條碼
505
00:39:36,919 --> 00:39:41,358
我不知道的是，多謝那第一次的技術匯流
506
00:39:41,393 --> 00:39:50,653
Southwest開始了一個新的計畫，讓所有的客戶
可以在前一天晚上12:01下載並印出自己的機票
507
00:39:50,688 --> 00:39:55,238
喔，各位，我看著那樣子，我對自己說：
Friedman，你實在太落伍了
508
00:39:57,812 --> 00:40:00,941
你實在是屬於全球化2.0
509
00:40:00,976 --> 00:40:05,610
但你想想看，在全球化1.0的時候，有旅行社的存在
（譯者註：是2.0，講者口誤）
510
00:40:05,645 --> 00:40:10,497
你可以去華盛頓的Kate街，抽一個號碼牌，面前有個真人
511
00:40:10,532 --> 00:40:12,563
然後電子機票的機器出現了
512
00:40:12,598 --> 00:40:14,195
我們覺得那就很酷了
513
00:40:15,428 --> 00:40:17,098
然後，當諸位還在沈睡的時候
514
00:40:17,875 --> 00:40:25,282
Southwest讓你成為替自己處理票務的人
515
00:40:26,122 --> 00:40:29,770
抱歉喔各位，從另一個角度來看，
516
00:40:29,805 --> 00:40:33,714
Southwest航空讓你成為他們的員工
517
00:40:35,009 --> 00:40:36,820
我還必須再請各位注意
518
00:40:37,053 --> 00:40:45,070
如果你珍惜自己的時間，在前一天12:01下載機票
你等於是付錢給Southwest航空讓你當職員
519
00:40:48,130 --> 00:40:52,482
這一切就這麼發生了
520
00:40:52,738 --> 00:41:00,480
我之前所說的匯聚，讓Southwest航空可以作到這件事
521
00:41:00,515 --> 00:41:04,009
我沒做到的則是把自己水平化
522
00:41:04,044 --> 00:41:08,832
我還是垂直的跟Southwest互動
523
00:41:08,867 --> 00:41:12,385
我是那個去用電子機票機的笨蛋
524
00:41:14,089 --> 00:41:16,343
而不是在家聰明下載機票的人
525
00:41:16,378 --> 00:41:18,856
所以，下次，下次
526
00:41:18,891 --> 00:41:22,641
我會在前一天12:01上線
527
00:41:22,676 --> 00:41:28,362
我會上網替Southwest工作，
我會下載我自己的機票和條碼
528
00:41:28,921 --> 00:41:33,530
我只需要在起飛前35分鐘抵達BWI機場
529
00:41:34,401 --> 00:41:39,985
而不是95分鐘之前，我可以獲得60分鐘的生產力
530
00:41:41,345 --> 00:41:45,952
所有讓我可以獲得這60分鐘生產力的改變
531
00:41:45,987 --> 00:41:51,802
都只不過是我們改變習慣、改變商業流程的剛開始而已
532
00:41:51,837 --> 00:41:55,123
這一切都是為了我所謂的讓自己水平化
533
00:41:55,158 --> 00:41:59,194
這就是我所謂的第二次匯集，而我們正在它的剛開始
534
00:41:59,229 --> 00:42:02,821
第三次的匯集非常簡單，正當世界變得平坦時
535
00:42:02,856 --> 00:42:07,277
正當我們完成可以分配和分享各種工作與知識的平台時
536
00:42:07,312 --> 00:42:11,119
正當我們開始改變我們的商業流程時，發生了什麼事情？
537
00:42:11,154 --> 00:42:17,053
三個巨大的經濟體，印度、中國和前蘇聯開放了
538
00:42:17,798 --> 00:42:23,814
三十億人類原先處身競賽之外，現在都登上了舞台
539
00:42:23,849 --> 00:42:27,592
他們是什麼時候登場的呢？正當世界變得平坦時
540
00:42:27,627 --> 00:42:30,999
正當他們可以隨時連上網路，競爭和合作時
541
00:42:31,085 --> 00:42:36,665
對象是你我的子女，
而且是有史以來效率更高、更便宜的時候
542
00:42:36,700 --> 00:42:43,367
是的，我知道，
在那三十億中只有十分之一能夠隨時連上網路
543
00:42:43,402 --> 00:42:47,990
三十億的十分之一是多少？是三億人
544
00:42:48,025 --> 00:42:51,295
正好是美國工作人力的兩倍
545
00:42:52,371 --> 00:42:54,547
本書的看法很簡單
546
00:42:54,582 --> 00:43:01,481
這十個夷平機制、改變中的商業流程和這三億新玩家
547
00:43:01,516 --> 00:43:05,905
他們將塑造整個二十一世紀的簡短歷史
548
00:43:05,940 --> 00:43:09,587
在我結束之前，讓我指出最後一件事情
549
00:43:09,622 --> 00:43:10,946
最後一個巧合
550
00:43:11,556 --> 00:43:13,720
這個巨大的事件
551
00:43:13,755 --> 00:43:19,896
我認為這三個趨勢的匯流，隨著時間的流逝，將會改變一切
552
00:43:20,416 --> 00:43:22,743
我們從垂直變得水平
553
00:43:22,778 --> 00:43:27,777
我想得要隨著時間的過去，才會看到真正的結果
554
00:43:27,812 --> 00:43:31,323
這會是一切的轉捩點
555
00:43:31,358 --> 00:43:36,562
這將會和古騰堡、以及印刷出版一樣關鍵
556
00:43:37,736 --> 00:43:42,346
而正當我們遭遇到這個驚人的轉捩點時
557
00:43:43,633 --> 00:43:49,136
它完全被我所謂的政治完美風暴給遮蔽住了
558
00:43:49,784 --> 00:43:55,679
而這完美風暴是911事件、安隆事件和網路泡沫化
559
00:43:56,291 --> 00:44:01,392
911事件讓我們全國上從總統，下至記者全都分了心
560
00:44:01,427 --> 00:44:03,129
我們全都轉去注意別的地方了
561
00:44:03,164 --> 00:44:06,970
安隆事件讓所有的總裁在證明無辜之前都是嫌疑犯
562
00:44:07,005 --> 00:44:08,675
誰會想要替他們著想？
563
00:44:08,710 --> 00:44:14,154
我們當然更不會替他們想要如何幫忙
才能讓他們更有效率的在新世界合作與競爭
564
00:44:14,189 --> 00:44:20,514
他們會需要什麼樣的租稅減免或是不同的智財權和著作權法律
565
00:44:21,674 --> 00:44:25,649
當然，網路泡沫化讓很多人變得真的很笨
566
00:44:25,684 --> 00:44:28,098
讓他們以為全球化已經結束了
567
00:44:28,955 --> 00:44:31,200
事實上，全球化根本是被超頻在進行
568
00:44:33,089 --> 00:44:35,593
正當世界變平的時候
569
00:44:37,743 --> 00:44:40,201
我們竟然完全看錯方向
570
00:44:40,236 --> 00:44:44,071
寫作這本書的經驗真的很獨特
571
00:44:44,547 --> 00:44:48,544
當我四處訪問這些執行長、科技長、資訊長的時候
572
00:44:48,579 --> 00:44:51,784
他們就像是瘋狂科學家一樣
573
00:44:51,819 --> 00:44:55,135
他們就像是科幻電影中的瘋狂科學家一樣
574
00:44:55,170 --> 00:44:58,199
他們全都知道這秘密
575
00:44:58,234 --> 00:45:00,357
而且正緊鑼密鼓的進行
576
00:45:00,392 --> 00:45:04,127
他們全都知道在發生些什麼，我所知道的幾乎都是他們告訴我的
577
00:45:04,758 --> 00:45:07,494
他們都知道發生了什麼事情
578
00:45:07,529 --> 00:45:11,171
但卻沒人告訴孩子們！
579
00:45:13,900 --> 00:45:16,900
沒人告訴孩子真相
580
00:45:17,566 --> 00:45:19,374
我們剛結束一場選舉
581
00:45:19,409 --> 00:45:22,462
正身處在這三個機緣巧合的匯流中
582
00:45:22,973 --> 00:45:26,916
民主黨人在吵著北美貿易自由協定是不是個好主意
583
00:45:27,644 --> 00:45:34,715
而共和黨人則是把白宮首席經濟學家Greg
Mankiw的嘴巴用膠帶貼起來
584
00:45:34,750 --> 00:45:37,387
因為他說外包很合理
585
00:45:37,422 --> 00:45:41,797
而他們把他關在副總統Dick
Chenny的地下室裡
586
00:45:45,277 --> 00:45:51,325
再也不讓任何人發現他，有人最近看過這傢伙嗎？
587
00:45:54,788 --> 00:46:01,181
正當我們到了一個需要眾多改變才會抵達的關鍵轉捩點時
588
00:46:02,404 --> 00:46:04,189
卻沒人告訴孩子們
589
00:46:05,741 --> 00:46:09,764
所以，我寫這本書，是希望至少告訴兩個孩子
590
00:46:10,347 --> 00:46:11,778
Orly
與Natalie
Friedman
591
00:46:12,923 --> 00:46:15,084
他們未來長大的世界會是什麼樣子
592
00:46:16,052 --> 00:46:17,886
原先的世界，我經常聽到
593
00:46:17,921 --> 00:46:20,087
當我在Minneapolis長大時，我父母會對我說
594
00:46:20,662 --> 00:46:23,210
Tom吃完你的晚餐，印度和中國的人們正在挨餓
595
00:46:24,285 --> 00:46:26,540
我會跟我的女兒們說：女兒，做完你的作業
596
00:46:26,575 --> 00:46:30,196
因為印度和中國的人們正飢渴的要跟你搶工作
597
00:46:30,231 --> 00:46:34,036
而在一個平坦的世界中，他們是搶的到的
598
00:46:34,071 --> 00:46:37,923
已經不再有所謂的美國人的工作了
599
00:46:39,291 --> 00:46:46,919
讓我在此以HP的前總裁Carly
Fiorina在丟掉工作之前的睿智看法作結
600
00:46:48,623 --> 00:46:50,639
Carly事實上很清楚這狀況
|
501
00:39:10,413 --> 00:39:11,975
Then they called the flight
502
00:39:12,887 --> 00:39:14,504
and then I saw it.
503
00:39:14,539 --> 00:39:25,544
All the As seem to be getting on kept what
look to me like crumpled pieces of white home printer paper
504
00:39:26,305 --> 00:39:36,884
as though they had downloaded and printed
it out at home their own bar codes and boarding passes at 12:01a.m. the
night before!
505
00:39:36,919 --> 00:39:41,358
Well, what I didn’t know is, thanks to the
first convergence,
506
00:39:41,393 --> 00:39:50,653
Southwest Airline has begun a program where
all their customers could download and print out their own boarding
passes at 12:01 AM the night before.
507
00:39:50,688 --> 00:39:55,238
Oh, friends, I looked at that and I said,
“Friedman, you are an old 20th century.
508
00:39:57,812 --> 00:40:00,941
You are so globalization 2.0.”
509
00:40:00,976 --> 00:40:05,610
I mean, really, but think about it in
globalization 1.0, there was a ticket agency.
510
00:40:05,645 --> 00:40:10,497
We were supposed to go down the Kate St. in
Washington, pull a number stamp there’s a physical person standing in
front of you.
511
00:40:10,532 --> 00:40:12,563
Then it was e-ticket machine.
512
00:40:12,598 --> 00:40:14,195
We thought that was cool.
513
00:40:15,428 --> 00:40:17,098
And then while you were sleeping, while you
were sleeping,
514
00:40:17,875 --> 00:40:25,282
Southwest Airline made you the individual
your own ticket agent.
515
00:40:26,122 --> 00:40:29,770
And excuse me, another way to look at it,
516
00:40:29,805 --> 00:40:33,714
the Southwest Airline made you their
employee.
517
00:40:35,009 --> 00:40:36,820
And excuse me one more time,
518
00:40:37,053 --> 00:40:45,070
if you value your time that before 12:01
that night before, you are paying Southwest Airlines to be their
employee.
519
00:40:48,130 --> 00:40:52,482
That just happened.
520
00:40:52,738 --> 00:41:00,480
And that convergence made possible what
Southwest Airlines did.
521
00:41:00,515 --> 00:41:04,009
And what I hadn't done was horizontalize
myself.
522
00:41:04,044 --> 00:41:08,832
I was still interacting with Southwest
Airlines vertically.
523
00:41:08,867 --> 00:41:12,385
I was the moron going up to the e-ticket
machine,
524
00:41:14,089 --> 00:41:16,343
not the person downloading ticket at home.
525
00:41:16,378 --> 00:41:18,856
So next time around, next time around,
526
00:41:18,891 --> 00:41:22,641
I will go online at 12:01 that night
before.
527
00:41:22,676 --> 00:41:28,362
I will go to work for Southwest Airlines. I
will download as an individual my own boarding pass and bar code.
528
00:41:28,921 --> 00:41:33,530
And I will arrive at BWI airport 35 minutes
before the flight,
529
00:41:34,401 --> 00:41:39,985
not 95, and I will capture 60 minutes of
productivity.
530
00:41:41,345 --> 00:41:45,952
All the changes that will be involved that
me captured in those 60 minutes.
531
00:41:45,987 --> 00:41:51,802
We are just at the beginning of a million
changes in our habits and business processes around
532
00:41:51,837 --> 00:41:55,123
that I call horizontalizing ourselves.
533
00:41:55,158 --> 00:41:59,194
That is the second convergence. We say
we're just at the beginning of it.
534
00:41:59,229 --> 00:42:02,821
The third convergence is very simple. Just
when the world went flat,
535
00:42:02,856 --> 00:42:07,277
it’s only created that platform for
multiple forms of sharing knowledge and work
536
00:42:07,312 --> 00:42:11,119
just when we started to adapt our business
processes, what happens?
537
00:42:11,154 --> 00:42:17,053
Three huge economies called India, China
and the former Soviet empire opened up.
538
00:42:17,798 --> 00:42:23,814
And three billion people who are out of the
game walk on to the playing field.
539
00:42:23,849 --> 00:42:27,592
And when do they arrive? Just when the
world has been flattened.
540
00:42:27,627 --> 00:42:30,999
Just when then can plug and play, compete,
connect and collaborate
541
00:42:31,085 --> 00:42:36,665
with your kids and mine, more efficiently,
cheaply and effectively than ever before in the history of the planet.
542
00:42:36,700 --> 00:42:43,367
Yes, I know, it's ten percent of those,
only ten percent of those three billions who can really plug and play.
543
00:42:43,402 --> 00:42:47,990
Ten percent of three billion zero carry the
one. That's three hundred million people.
544
00:42:48,025 --> 00:42:51,295
That's exactly twice the size of the
American work force
545
00:42:52,371 --> 00:42:54,547
It's the simple argument of this book
546
00:42:54,582 --> 00:43:01,481
that it is the convergence of these ten
flatteners with these new business processes with the three billion new
players
547
00:43:01,516 --> 00:43:05,905
that is going to shape the brief history of
the 21st century
548
00:43:05,940 --> 00:43:09,587
Now before I end, let me just point out one
last thing,
549
00:43:09,622 --> 00:43:10,946
one last coincidence,
550
00:43:11,556 --> 00:43:13,720
this huge event, this
551
00:43:13,755 --> 00:43:19,896
what I, this triple convergence, for that I
think, over time, is going to change everything.
552
00:43:20,416 --> 00:43:22,743
We are going from vertical to horizontal.
553
00:43:22,778 --> 00:43:27,777
I think this is gonna to be seen in time.
554
00:43:27,812 --> 00:43:31,323
And it will take time to play out as the
mother of all inflection points.
555
00:43:31,358 --> 00:43:36,562
This is gonna be as big as Gutenberg and
the printing press.
556
00:43:37,736 --> 00:43:42,346
And just when we reach this incredible
inflection point,
557
00:43:43,633 --> 00:43:49,136
it gets completely disguised by what I
would call a political perfect storm.
558
00:43:49,784 --> 00:43:55,679
And that political perfect storm is 9.11,
Enron and the .com bust.
559
00:43:56,291 --> 00:44:01,392
9.11 completely distracts us, from a
country from the President on down to the reporters, Ok?
560
00:44:01,427 --> 00:44:03,129
We all focused somewhere else.
561
00:44:03,164 --> 00:44:06,970
Enron made every CEO guilty until proven
innocent.
562
00:44:07,005 --> 00:44:08,675
Who wants to talk to them?
563
00:44:08,710 --> 00:44:14,154
Little on think about what they might need
to actually compete and collaborate more effectively in this world,
564
00:44:14,189 --> 00:44:20,514
what they might need by way of taxes
incentives to different copy right and intellectual property laws?
565
00:44:21,674 --> 00:44:25,649
And of course, the .com bust made a lot of
people really silly.
566
00:44:25,684 --> 00:44:28,098
It made them think the globalization was
over.
567
00:44:28,955 --> 00:44:31,200
But in fact, it was just been turbocharged.
568
00:44:33,089 --> 00:44:35,593
So right when the world got flat,
569
00:44:37,743 --> 00:44:40,201
we are looking totally the other way.
570
00:44:40,236 --> 00:44:44,071
So doing this book was really a strange
experience
571
00:44:44,547 --> 00:44:48,544
coz I would go around and interview all the
CIOs and CTOs and CEOs
572
00:44:48,579 --> 00:44:51,784
And they are, they are like pot people.
573
00:44:51,819 --> 00:44:55,135
They are like pot people in a science
fiction movie.
574
00:44:55,170 --> 00:44:58,199
They all know the secret
575
00:44:58,234 --> 00:45:00,357
They are doing it like crazy.
576
00:45:00,392 --> 00:45:04,127
They all know what's going on. Everything I
learned, I learned from them.
577
00:45:04,758 --> 00:45:07,494
They all know what's going on
578
00:45:07,529 --> 00:45:11,171
but nobody's told the kids!
579
00:45:13,900 --> 00:45:16,900
Nobody's told the kids!
580
00:45:17,566 --> 00:45:19,374
So we just had an election
581
00:45:19,409 --> 00:45:22,462
right at the middle of this triple
convergence,
582
00:45:22,973 --> 00:45:26,916
with the Democrats were debating whether
NAFTA was a good idea,
583
00:45:27,644 --> 00:45:34,715
and the Republicans put duck tape over the
mouth of Chief White House economist Greg Mankiw
584
00:45:34,750 --> 00:45:37,387
when he said outsourcing makes a lot of
sense.
585
00:45:37,422 --> 00:45:41,797
And they stashed him in Dick Cheney's
basement,
586
00:45:45,277 --> 00:45:51,325
never to be heard from again. Has anybody
seen Greg Mankiw?
587
00:45:54,788 --> 00:46:01,181
So right when we have reached a fundamental
inflection point, that's gonna require a lot of change,
588
00:46:02,404 --> 00:46:04,189
nobody's told the kids.
589
00:46:05,741 --> 00:46:09,764
So I wrote this book to tell at least two
kids,
590
00:46:10,347 --> 00:46:11,778
Orly and Natalie Friedman:
591
00:46:12,923 --> 00:46:15,084
“What world I think they are gonna grow up
in?”
592
00:46:16,052 --> 00:46:17,886
And it's a world I said many times…
593
00:46:17,921 --> 00:46:20,087
When I was growing up in Minneapolis, my
parents said to me
594
00:46:20,662 --> 00:46:23,210
"Tom, finish your dinner. People in India
and China are starving."
595
00:46:24,285 --> 00:46:26,540
And I tell my girls, "Girls, finish your
homework,
596
00:46:26,575 --> 00:46:30,196
because people in China and India are
starving for your jobs.”
597
00:46:30,231 --> 00:46:34,036
And in a flat world, they can have them.
598
00:46:34,071 --> 00:46:37,923
There is no such thing as an American job
any more.
599
00:46:39,291 --> 00:46:46,919
So let me simply conclude with an insight
that was parted to me by Carly Fiorina form HP before she lost her job.
600
00:46:48,623 --> 00:46:50,639
Carly got all these actually
|
|
601
00:46:50,674 --> 00:46:55,898
我不知道她在商業上的表現，但她真的很聰明
602
00:46:55,933 --> 00:47:03,169
她說：Tom，你知道嗎，
所有我們過去二十年稱為IT革命，資訊科技革命的東西...
603
00:47:03,204 --> 00:47:07,831
很抱歉必須告訴你，那只是暖身而已
604
00:47:07,866 --> 00:47:17,169
那只是在這個平台上鑄造、磨練、和傳遞那些新的合作工具而已
605
00:47:17,811 --> 00:47:20,346
我們現在不過只是開始階段的尾聲而已
606
00:47:20,987 --> 00:47:22,707
你現在即將看到的是
607
00:47:22,742 --> 00:47:26,491
真正的IT革命
608
00:47:27,322 --> 00:47:33,849
所以，諸位，綁好安全帶，豎直椅背，收起你的餐桌
609
00:47:34,872 --> 00:47:37,737
因為這個世界是平坦的
610
00:47:37,772 --> 00:47:38,706
謝謝各位！
611
00:47:38,741 --> 00:47:41,025
謝謝各位！
612
00:48:05,124 --> 00:48:10,313
我知道我們還有時間提問，如果可能的話，我想請學生優先
613
00:48:10,348 --> 00:48:12,043
如果你是學生，你可以...你！
614
00:48:13,300 --> 00:48:21,223
問：像是非洲的一樣國家....
Tom：如何用這套系統來解釋？
615
00:48:21,258 --> 00:48:22,368
這是個很重要的問題
616
00:48:22,403 --> 00:48:25,935
喔，各位，剛剛的問題是我之後會不會有簽名的活動
617
00:48:26,951 --> 00:48:30,543
答案是有的，太感謝你發問了！
618
00:48:34,159 --> 00:48:39,415
非洲要在這個系統中扮演什麼角色？所有的低度發展國家又如何？
619
00:48:41,220 --> 00:48:43,434
這本書有兩個大段落，我剛剛所說的只是第一部份
620
00:48:43,469 --> 00:48:49,445
第一段落是這對美國的意義，
第二段落是這對發展中國家和地緣政治的意義
621
00:48:52,576 --> 00:48:57,614
我簡單說一下描述發展中國家的章節，我會盡快一點回答你的問題
622
00:48:57,649 --> 00:48:59,663
首先的章節名稱叫Guadalupe的聖女
623
00:49:00,416 --> 00:49:07,960
當我在作這本書的研究時，我基本上是世界各地到處飛，
並且問大家一個問題：當你發現世界是平的時候，你人在哪裡？
624
00:49:08,673 --> 00:49:11,266
人們的回答總是很有趣
625
00:49:11,301 --> 00:49:16,993
我當時在墨西哥，正在和當地中央銀行的朋友請教
626
00:49:17,028 --> 00:49:22,138
我想是在墨西哥，應該是中央銀行
627
00:49:22,173 --> 00:49:26,676
他們說：我們去年發現世界是平的
628
00:49:26,711 --> 00:49:30,629
我們的護國聖女，也就是「Virgin
of Guadalupe」
629
00:49:30,664 --> 00:49:37,549
去年的時候我們發現，所有護國聖女的雕像都是從中國運來的
630
00:49:38,750 --> 00:49:41,888
當你是個低薪資的發展中國家時
631
00:49:41,923 --> 00:49:45,384
而你的護國聖女雕像竟然是從中國進口的
632
00:49:47,192 --> 00:49:48,377
世界真的是平的
633
00:49:50,088 --> 00:49:54,057
我想要說的重點，很嚴肅的重點是
634
00:49:54,092 --> 00:49:59,424
我和埃及的一個朋友討論，提到了他們傳統的齋戒月油燈
635
00:49:59,459 --> 00:50:02,259
孩子們會拿著這些齋戒月油燈在齋戒月四處走動
636
00:50:02,738 --> 00:50:09,682
這個有幾千年傳統的油燈，現在都是從中國進口的
637
00:50:09,717 --> 00:50:12,985
裡面還有個晶片會播放最新的埃及民歌
638
00:50:14,392 --> 00:50:21,153
當世界變平的時候，你的國家平坦度與其他國家若是稍有不同
639
00:50:21,188 --> 00:50:25,937
可以把在我國邊境的墨西哥帶到千里之遙以外
640
00:50:25,972 --> 00:50:31,000
而會把數千哩以外的中國一下子帶到我國邊境來
641
00:50:31,035 --> 00:50:33,977
我在那個段落中講的內容主要是
642
00:50:34,012 --> 00:50:38,437
我認為，90年代主要有關的是重整批發
643
00:50:38,472 --> 00:50:45,620
巨觀的經濟改革，開放國內的經濟等等
644
00:50:45,655 --> 00:50:53,218
90年代主要是重整批發，
但我認為2000年代將會是以重整零售為主
645
00:50:53,763 --> 00:50:56,389
有關如何真正開始一門生意
646
00:50:56,424 --> 00:51:00,421
世界銀行有一篇叫做「在2000年做生意」的調查
647
00:51:00,456 --> 00:51:04,381
他們實際上調查了一百多個國家、五大類別
648
00:51:04,416 --> 00:51:08,095
五個問題是
649
00:51:08,130 --> 00:51:11,054
獲得執照開業要多久？
650
00:51:11,089 --> 00:51:15,262
三天還是一百八十天，要花多少錢？
651
00:51:15,297 --> 00:51:18,438
聘僱和開除人員有多容易
652
00:51:18,473 --> 00:51:20,935
募集資金有多容易
653
00:51:20,970 --> 00:51:26,919
要解決商業爭議的法律判決要多久，有多貴？
654
00:51:26,954 --> 00:51:29,031
要破產有多容易？
655
00:51:29,066 --> 00:51:34,936
也就是有多容易把不流通的資產重新活化
656
00:51:34,971 --> 00:51:38,278
它作了極為完整的分析，
如果你還沒看過，那是非常有趣的一篇報告
657
00:51:38,313 --> 00:51:41,475
他們簡單的稱呼這為「做生意」，這五個判準方式
658
00:51:41,510 --> 00:51:44,515
我會認為這是五個微觀重整
659
00:51:44,550 --> 00:51:51,073
我認為零售業有多快能夠重整，
將會是區別不同發展中國家的關鍵
660
00:51:51,108 --> 00:51:54,977
但你問的問題更深入，是有關那些貧窮的國家
661
00:51:57,555 --> 00:52:00,665
我還有另一個章節叫做「不平的世界」
662
00:52:00,700 --> 00:52:04,065
我很清楚這世界並不是平的，並不夠平
663
00:52:04,857 --> 00:52:11,721
我認為，有四種力量、社群，
如果我們不特別照顧，他們並不會出現在平坦的世界中
664
00:52:12,464 --> 00:52:15,664
甚至很有可能讓他們的世界重新回到過去
665
00:52:16,473 --> 00:52:17,784
第一個我稱做為「病重者」
666
00:52:18,607 --> 00:52:23,111
他們是被各種像是HIV等疾病所掌握的群體
667
00:52:23,146 --> 00:52:26,881
在非洲鄉下、印度鄉下、蘇俄鄉下等等
668
00:52:26,916 --> 00:52:30,945
甚至在我們國家內或多或少也有
669
00:52:30,980 --> 00:52:33,129
他們就是病的太重了
670
00:52:33,164 --> 00:52:35,361
以致於無法參與平坦的世界
671
00:52:36,980 --> 00:52:42,722
事實上，
我也提到了一些有趣的合作模式，人們合力來解決這些問題
672
00:52:42,757 --> 00:52:47,067
像我所提到的Gates基金會，
就是以大挑戰的方式來面對這些問題
673
00:52:47,102 --> 00:52:49,325
第二群體我稱之為「太過弱勢」
674
00:52:49,360 --> 00:52:54,340
同樣的，那也是在印度鄉間、中國鄉間
他們去過北京、去過上海、去過邦加羅爾
675
00:52:54,375 --> 00:53:00,580
他們看過那些財富，但他們需要協助才能參與這改變
676
00:53:02,261 --> 00:53:10,428
說到這個，我很相信管理，任何貧窮解決方案的關鍵
677
00:53:10,463 --> 00:53:11,891
就是在管理
678
00:53:12,419 --> 00:53:17,777
而且是當地的管理，
這對NGO和反全球化組織來說都是一大挑戰
679
00:53:17,812 --> 00:53:21,601
應該要讓當地管理成為最重要的關鍵
680
00:53:22,019 --> 00:53:22,842
諸位不妨看看今日的印度
681
00:53:22,877 --> 00:53:27,074
印度1991年第一次對全世界開放的時候
682
00:53:27,109 --> 00:53:32,355
印度國庫只有一億美金，幾乎可算是個破產的國家
683
00:53:32,390 --> 00:53:35,371
今日印度有一千兩百億美金的存底
684
00:53:35,406 --> 00:53:36,698
這是好消息
685
00:53:36,733 --> 00:53:42,681
壞消息是，當100,000Ruby從新德里要送到邦加羅爾時
686
00:53:42,716 --> 00:53:46,266
等到錢到的時候，就只剩下10,000Ruby了
687
00:53:46,301 --> 00:53:56,472
因此，光是和這內部的行政體系打交道，
就會嚴重影響幫助這些人踏入平坦世界的效率
688
00:53:57,355 --> 00:53:58,842
第三個群體叫做「太過失望者」
689
00:53:59,482 --> 00:54:02,173
對我來說，大部分的回教世界都是這樣的
690
00:54:02,208 --> 00:54:08,467
他們看見世界上發生了什麼，也很想要加入
但他們覺得自己被孤立了
691
00:54:09,321 --> 00:54:11,142
所以，他們覺得非常失望
692
00:54:11,177 --> 00:54:14,276
第四個我認為的力量是「太多豐田汽車」
693
00:54:14,311 --> 00:54:20,772
因為當世界變平，三十億人口都懷抱著美國夢登場時
694
00:54:20,807 --> 00:54:23,625
一棟房子、烤箱、微波爐和豐田汽車
695
00:54:23,660 --> 00:54:25,947
如果我們不能找到替代能源
696
00:54:25,982 --> 00:54:34,102
我們將會史無前例的快速燒光、暖化這個地球
697
00:54:34,137 --> 00:54:38,083
或者，我們將會和中國互相爭奪石油
698
00:54:38,763 --> 00:54:41,078
因為中國的外交政策非常簡單
699
00:54:41,113 --> 00:54:42,853
可以寫成一句話
700
00:54:42,888 --> 00:54:44,629
台灣和找尋石油
|
601
00:46:50,674 --> 00:46:55,898
I don't know about the business side, but
she was very smart about all of these.
602
00:46:55,933 --> 00:47:03,169
And she said to me, “You know, Tom,
everything that we called IT revolution, the information technology
revolution, these last twenty years,
603
00:47:03,204 --> 00:47:07,831
sorry to tell you, that was just the warmer
packet.
604
00:47:07,866 --> 00:47:17,169
That’s just been the forging, sharpening
and distribution of the tools of collaboration into this new platform.
605
00:47:17,811 --> 00:47:20,346
We are now just at the end of the
beginning.
606
00:47:20,987 --> 00:47:22,707
What you are now about to see
607
00:47:22,742 --> 00:47:26,491
is the real IT revolution.”
608
00:47:27,322 --> 00:47:33,849
So, friends, fasten your seat belt and put
your seat back, and chair tables into a fixed and upright position
609
00:47:34,872 --> 00:47:37,737
because the world is flat.
610
00:47:37,772 --> 00:47:38,706
Thank you very much.
611
00:47:38,741 --> 00:47:41,025
Thank you very much.
612
00:48:05,124 --> 00:48:10,313
I know we have time for some questions. I'd
love to... I want to favour students if I could.
613
00:48:10,348 --> 00:48:12,043
So if you are a student you getta...yeah!
614
00:48:13,300 --> 00:48:21,223
(Student 1)Q: What do you think, if nations
that are underdeveloped, Something like Africa fits…
A: How does that fit into all these?
615
00:48:21,258 --> 00:48:22,368
It's an important question.
616
00:48:22,403 --> 00:48:25,935
The question was… will I be doing a book
signing afterwards?
617
00:48:26,951 --> 00:48:30,543
And the answer is yes, and thank you so
much for asking me.
618
00:48:34,159 --> 00:48:39,415
Where does Africa fit in? Where does the
whole under-developed world fit into all these?
619
00:48:41,220 --> 00:48:43,434
I've two chapters in the book. I've just
given you the first, you know.
620
00:48:43,469 --> 00:48:49,445
And the next parts are about what it means
for American. Last part, what it means for developing world and for
geopolitics.
621
00:48:52,576 --> 00:48:57,614
And the chapter on the developing world,
sort of...,I just go really quickly to answer your question.
622
00:48:57,649 --> 00:48:59,663
The first is called the Virgin of
Guadalupe.
623
00:49:00,416 --> 00:49:07,960
And what happened when I started my
researches in the book, I traveled around world and I come to have just
asking people where were you when you discovered the world is flat?
624
00:49:08,673 --> 00:49:11,266
It's very interesting getting people's
answers.
625
00:49:11,301 --> 00:49:16,993
So I was in Mexico and talking to some
friends of central bank there.
626
00:49:17,028 --> 00:49:22,138
And it may know it was Mexico and I think
it was the central bank.
627
00:49:22,173 --> 00:49:26,676
They said, “We discovered the world is flat
last year. You know,
628
00:49:26,711 --> 00:49:30,629
our patron saint, in Mexico it's Virgin of
Guadalupe.
629
00:49:30,664 --> 00:49:37,549
And last year we discovered that all kinds
of statues of the Virgin of Guadalupe were being imported from China.”
630
00:49:38,750 --> 00:49:41,888
When you are a low-wage developing country,
631
00:49:41,923 --> 00:49:45,384
and your patron saint has been imported
from China,
632
00:49:47,192 --> 00:49:48,377
the world is flat!
633
00:49:50,088 --> 00:49:54,057
The point about this, I’m trying to make
and this is a serious point…
634
00:49:54,092 --> 00:49:59,424
I did the same thing with an Egyptian
friend who talked about how Ramadan lanterns which are staple of
Ramadan,
635
00:49:59,459 --> 00:50:02,259
kids carry them around and around in
Ramadan,
636
00:50:02,738 --> 00:50:09,682
they are now all been imported. This is a
thousand year old ---- in Egypt and they are now all being imported from
China,
637
00:50:09,717 --> 00:50:12,985
with a microchip that played the latest
Egypt folk songs.
638
00:50:14,392 --> 00:50:21,153
What is this about when the world gets
flat, the slightest variation, you know, is your flatness relative to
another country.
639
00:50:21,188 --> 00:50:25,937
Can take a country like Mexico, from right
being on the border,, to thousands miles away;
640
00:50:25,972 --> 00:50:31,000
to countries like China, thousands miles
away, thousands miles away, to right to our border.
641
00:50:31,035 --> 00:50:33,977
And so what I really talk about in that
chapter is that what 90s were about.
642
00:50:34,012 --> 00:50:38,437
It seems to me was what I call a reform
wholesale,
643
00:50:38,472 --> 00:50:45,620
macroeconomic reform giving you sort of
opening your economy to the world. More trade and things that like…
644
00:50:45,655 --> 00:50:53,218
But what really what the 2000 is gonna be
about is a reform. That was a reform wholesale.
645
00:50:53,763 --> 00:50:56,389
Yes, it’s 2000 I think will be more about
retail about what actually gets a business started.
646
00:50:56,424 --> 00:51:00,421
And there is a wonderful study that the
World Bank has done called "Doing business 2000".
647
00:51:00,456 --> 00:51:04,381
They actually looked at five categories, a
hundred countries. I think I get this right.
648
00:51:04,416 --> 00:51:08,095
Five questions.
649
00:51:08,130 --> 00:51:11,054
‘How long does it take to get a license to
start a business?’
650
00:51:11,089 --> 00:51:15,262
Does it take three days or a hundred eighty
days. And ‘how much does it cost?’
651
00:51:15,297 --> 00:51:18,438
‘How easy is it to hire and fire people?’
652
00:51:18,473 --> 00:51:20,935
‘How easy is it to raise capital?’
653
00:51:20,970 --> 00:51:26,919
‘How easy is it to get a legal dispute, a
commercial dispute, adjudicated? How much money does it cost?’
654
00:51:26,954 --> 00:51:29,031
And ‘how easy is it to go bankrupt?’
655
00:51:29,066 --> 00:51:34,936
Because it is very important if it is to be
easy to free up dead capital in order to apply to live thing.
656
00:51:34,971 --> 00:51:38,278
And it did a whole schema. It's a
fascinating report if you have seen it.
657
00:51:38,313 --> 00:51:41,475
They simply called "doing business" and
these five criteria.
658
00:51:41,510 --> 00:51:44,515
These are the reforms, micro-reforms.
659
00:51:44,550 --> 00:51:51,073
I think how quickly you get to reform
retail will really differentiate one developing country from another.
660
00:51:51,108 --> 00:51:54,977
But you asked a further question, really
about the poorest countries in the world.
661
00:51:57,555 --> 00:52:00,665
I have another chapter which is really
called ‘the un-flat world.’
662
00:52:00,700 --> 00:52:04,065
I just said, ‘Don’t worry.’ I understand
the world isn't all flat not even close. Ok?
663
00:52:04,857 --> 00:52:11,721
And to me there is sort of four forces and
communities that are not in the flat world, that if we don't attend to
them
664
00:52:12,464 --> 00:52:15,664
Could very much un-flatten the world from
their side.
665
00:52:16,473 --> 00:52:17,784
The first I simply call it the "too-sick".
666
00:52:18,607 --> 00:52:23,111
And that's communities caught in the gripe
of HIV AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria,
667
00:52:23,146 --> 00:52:26,881
and that's everything from rural Africa to
rural India to rural Russia.
668
00:52:26,916 --> 00:52:30,945
I mean, parts, you know, no doubt, even
around our own country to a lesser degree.
669
00:52:30,980 --> 00:52:33,129
They just are too sick
670
00:52:33,164 --> 00:52:35,361
to be able to take part in the flat world.
671
00:52:36,980 --> 00:52:42,722
And actually I talked about the interesting
ways of collaboration that people are coming up to address some of
those problems.
672
00:52:42,757 --> 00:52:47,067
In fact I talked about the Gates
Foundation, which I think it's very interesting, grand challenging
model.
673
00:52:47,102 --> 00:52:49,325
The second group of people I called the
"too-unabled"
674
00:52:49,360 --> 00:52:54,340
And again, that's rural India, rural China.
I've been to Beijing. I've been to Shanghai. I've been to Bangalore.
675
00:52:54,375 --> 00:53:00,580
I've seen the riches but they need a step
stool, if they are gonna be able to participate in this.
676
00:53:02,261 --> 00:53:10,428
And what I talked about there is, I'm a big
believer that in governance. That’s the key to every anti-poverty
program
677
00:53:10,463 --> 00:53:11,891
is around governance
678
00:53:12,419 --> 00:53:17,777
and local governance. It's really a
challenge basically to the NGO community and anti-globalization movement
679
00:53:17,812 --> 00:53:21,601
to make actually local governance and
focusing on that the priority.
680
00:53:22,019 --> 00:53:22,842
Coz you look at India today.
681
00:53:22,877 --> 00:53:27,074
India in 1991, when they first do their
opening to the world,
682
00:53:27,109 --> 00:53:32,355
had 100 million dollars in the bank. India
was going broke. Do you understand when they talk about a country that
way?
683
00:53:32,390 --> 00:53:35,371
Today India has 120 billion dollars in
reserve.
684
00:53:35,406 --> 00:53:36,698
That's the good news.
685
00:53:36,733 --> 00:53:42,681
The bad news is when 100 thousand rupees is
allocated from New Delhi to the village outside Bangalore,
686
00:53:42,716 --> 00:53:46,266
by the time it gets there, it's down to 10
thousand rupees.
687
00:53:46,301 --> 00:53:56,472
And so actually dealing with just that
internal chain of governance put up a huge impact in building a
step-stool for people who want to be in globalization.
688
00:53:57,355 --> 00:53:58,842
Third group are the "too frustrated".
689
00:53:59,482 --> 00:54:02,173
And that to me is a lot of the Muslim world
today.
690
00:54:02,208 --> 00:54:08,467
They’ve seen what's going in the flat
world, they want to be part of it but they feel very much left behind
691
00:54:09,321 --> 00:54:11,142
and so they’re too frustrated.
692
00:54:11,177 --> 00:54:14,276
And the fourth is simply what I called
"too-many-Toyotas"
693
00:54:14,311 --> 00:54:20,772
Coz when the world goes flat and three
million people arrived with own god blessed versions of American dreams
for them:
694
00:54:20,807 --> 00:54:23,625
a house, a car, a toaster and a microwave
oven and a Toyota.
695
00:54:23,660 --> 00:54:25,947
If we don't find an alternative source of
energy,
696
00:54:25,982 --> 00:54:34,102
we are gonna burn up, heat up this planet
faster than any time in the history of God’s creating the earth.
697
00:54:34,137 --> 00:54:38,083
And all work is gonna be a global struggle
with China over oil
698
00:54:38,763 --> 00:54:41,078
coz China's foreign police is very simple.
699
00:54:41,113 --> 00:54:42,853
If summarize it in one sentence:
700
00:54:42,888 --> 00:54:44,629
Taiwan and looking for oil.
|
|
701
00:54:44,664 --> 00:54:46,941
中國的目標就只有這樣
702
00:54:49,075 --> 00:54:51,462
這理由是很顯而易見的
703
00:54:51,463 --> 00:54:56,701
重新回到這個平台上，你就會知道為什麼油價一加侖三塊美金
704
00:55:00,038 --> 00:55:04,287
我沒有萬靈藥可以改變這些國家的狀況
705
00:55:04,322 --> 00:55:12,014
但世界銀行所發現的問題很值得參考，
改革零售產業是一個方法
706
00:55:13,906 --> 00:55:16,319
所提供的協助與他們合作也是一個
707
00:55:16,354 --> 00:55:19,963
我很快舉個書中的例子，因為你的問題很重要
708
00:55:19,998 --> 00:55:25,572
HP做過一個非常有趣的專案，他們認養了一個印度村莊和產業
709
00:55:25,761 --> 00:55:30,891
有天他們突然想到，這世界上有十億人一天只花兩三美金
710
00:55:30,926 --> 00:55:34,509
遠比一天花一萬或是一萬五千美金的人多
711
00:55:34,544 --> 00:55:39,280
我們得想的就是
如何幫他們製造產品，並且讓他們可以獲利
712
00:55:39,315 --> 00:55:42,864
他們認養了一個印度村莊，我忘記名字了，書中有寫
713
00:55:42,899 --> 00:55:48,937
他們去那邊，花了六個月，
只為了問清楚他們需要什麼，他們最需要什麼
714
00:55:49,771 --> 00:55:51,244
其中一項HP可以提供的產品
715
00:55:51,279 --> 00:55:55,643
他們研究發現，人們真的很需要相機來拍照
716
00:55:56,364 --> 00:56:00,043
他們需要照片來製作執照、有照片的執照
717
00:56:00,078 --> 00:56:07,284
有時為了拍張證照用的照片，人們
必須要走一整天到附近有攝影師的城鎮去
718
00:56:07,319 --> 00:56:08,659
HP說，沒問題！
719
00:56:08,694 --> 00:56:09,722
我們可以拍照片
720
00:56:11,251 --> 00:56:17,576
所以他們給了照相機和可以列印相片的印表機
721
00:56:17,611 --> 00:56:19,754
沒問題，但接著他們又發現沒有電
722
00:56:21,187 --> 00:56:23,058
所以他們考慮了片刻
723
00:56:23,093 --> 00:56:29,426
然後說沒問題，太陽能推動的相機和相片印表機
724
00:56:29,461 --> 00:56:35,662
所以他們就研發了一個機動的
太陽能攝影工作室，包括相機和印表機
725
00:56:36,384 --> 00:56:41,575
然後他們把這系統給了當地，該村莊的婦女NGO
726
00:56:42,439 --> 00:56:46,278
他們想要知道這管不管用，能不能創造一門生意
727
00:56:46,313 --> 00:56:52,270
結果他們發現，猜猜看怎麼著？
印度的村民就像所有人一樣，喜歡拍照！
728
00:56:52,305 --> 00:56:57,721
突然間，他們想要家庭合照、結婚照、朋友拜訪的照片
729
00:56:57,756 --> 00:57:02,665
他們需要各種照片，
所以這些婦女發展了一門很賺錢的生意
730
00:57:03,923 --> 00:57:10,313
一年之後，HP的人來了，他們說，
太好了，你們有了賺錢的生意，把相機還給我們吧！
731
00:57:12,313 --> 00:57:16,802
她們說：這是什麼意思？我們的生意正好啊！
732
00:57:19,190 --> 00:57:24,489
HP說，如果你們可以提出經營計畫，就可以保有這套相機
733
00:57:24,524 --> 00:57:28,249
你會每個月付我們固定的錢
734
00:57:28,284 --> 00:57:31,137
以便支付機器租金和紙張的錢，而她們作到了
735
00:57:32,185 --> 00:57:34,842
因為這才是可永續發展的方式，可以擴大的方式
736
00:57:34,877 --> 00:57:37,657
只要它可以這樣永續發展
737
00:57:37,692 --> 00:57:39,419
所以，這樣的合作模式
738
00:57:39,454 --> 00:57:41,550
而不是來頤指氣使的說你們需要這些
739
00:57:41,585 --> 00:57:48,604
而是真的坐下來，放低姿態，
設計出符合人們生活的解決方案
740
00:57:48,639 --> 00:57:51,387
我想那才是部分的答案
741
00:57:53,693 --> 00:57:54,715
我要找學生，對，你，看起來像是個學生...
742
00:57:56,291 --> 00:58:00,150
像是麻省理工學院這樣的機構能作什麼？
743
00:58:00,185 --> 00:58:03,071
麻省理工學院能作些什麼？哇！
744
00:58:04,647 --> 00:58:10,935
這是我今天整天來這邊，有機會和大家談談的問題
745
00:58:10,970 --> 00:58:17,207
我認為你們所做的開放式課程是非常棒的先驅計畫，
746
00:58:17,242 --> 00:58:18,975
我今天越瞭解開放式課程
747
00:58:19,010 --> 00:58:26,712
我認為這是個很有力量的平台，一定會引起很多人模仿
748
00:58:26,747 --> 00:58:29,834
也是那位年輕人問題的部分答案
749
00:58:30,370 --> 00:58:32,833
提供開放那些知識
750
00:58:32,868 --> 00:58:34,977
我認為今日發生的事情讓人非常興奮
751
00:58:35,012 --> 00:58:37,784
我們正將全世界的知識庫連結在一起
752
00:58:37,819 --> 00:58:39,505
這才是平坦世界的真正意義
753
00:58:39,540 --> 00:58:43,448
而你們的開放式課程所做的事情正是其中連結的關鍵
754
00:58:43,483 --> 00:58:46,560
所以，我認為你們將會觸發一連串的創意發想
755
00:58:46,595 --> 00:58:53,880
所以，下個階段的生化科技突破...
Motorolla正在設計12美金的手機
756
00:58:53,915 --> 00:59:00,233
一個12美金、可以連上網路的手機，
可以下載Google和麻省理工的開放式課程
757
00:59:00,268 --> 00:59:04,187
這樣一來，誰能預料下一次的生化科學的突破會出現在哪裡？
758
00:59:04,222 --> 00:59:08,299
也許來自Romania下載了人類基因庫的十五歲孩子
759
00:59:09,788 --> 00:59:13,964
我認為你們在作的事情是非常非常有力的
760
00:59:13,999 --> 00:59:17,143
我想今天我們討論的主題之一是
761
00:59:18,013 --> 00:59:23,101
我想我國在這個問題的巨觀角度上走錯了方向
762
00:59:25,165 --> 00:59:29,052
我不是來這邊開玩笑的，但我們的同胞有些人真的很難理解
763
00:59:29,087 --> 00:59:32,294
但在Kansas我們竟然還有不願意放進化論的電影院
764
00:59:32,329 --> 00:59:38,357
正當世界平坦化，而我們
獲益良多的時候，還有這樣的事情在發生
765
00:59:38,392 --> 00:59:40,436
我想我們擁有所有成功的秘訣
766
00:59:40,471 --> 00:59:42,154
很棒的研究型大學
767
00:59:42,189 --> 00:59:45,163
有法治、有效率的市場
768
00:59:45,198 --> 00:59:47,556
智慧財產權的保護等
769
00:59:47,591 --> 00:59:50,523
但我們並沒有好好保護我們成功的秘方
770
00:59:51,532 --> 00:59:55,547
去年國家科學基金會的預算裁減了一億美金
771
00:59:55,582 --> 00:59:59,580
那實在是太...我是說它的預算被國會裁減了一億美金
772
01:00:00,814 --> 01:00:03,070
那實在是太愚蠢了
773
01:00:03,926 --> 01:00:08,334
我是說在這樣的時機中竟然這樣做
774
01:00:14,340 --> 01:00:16,404
我在書中的看法和想表達的是：
775
01:00:16,439 --> 01:00:18,570
我們正在一個寧靜危機中
776
01:00:20,051 --> 01:00:25,686
寧靜危機這個字是引用麻省理工畢業生Shirley
Ann Jackson的話
777
01:00:25,721 --> 01:00:32,097
她是Rensselaer
Polytech的校長，
也是第一個在麻省理工獲得物理學博士的非裔美國女性
778
01:00:33,474 --> 01:00:35,770
她稱呼這為寧靜危機
779
01:00:35,805 --> 01:00:36,908
她會這樣說是因為
780
01:00:36,943 --> 01:00:45,387
是因為她是被Sputnik（蘇俄第一枚人造衛星）和Kennedy總統
將人送上月球的願景所感動而去學習科學與工程的世代
781
01:00:49,116 --> 01:00:52,666
而那個世代正在退休和消逝
782
01:00:52,701 --> 01:00:54,436
我們都知道，我們並沒有想法替代他們，
783
01:00:54,703 --> 01:00:59,153
而是想辦法從印度和中國等地進口新的人才
784
01:01:01,810 --> 01:01:03,761
911之後發生了兩件事情
785
01:01:03,796 --> 01:01:05,097
一件是世界變平了
786
01:01:05,132 --> 01:01:08,952
當世界變平時，你發揮創意不需要移民
787
01:01:09,729 --> 01:01:13,650
當你不需要移民就可以
創新的時候，誰要來冷颼颼的Boston？
788
01:01:13,685 --> 01:01:15,629
當你可以待在家裡，享受自己本來的文化
789
01:01:15,664 --> 01:01:20,756
替最進步的跨國企業研究最先進的科技，過著高水準的生活
790
01:01:20,791 --> 01:01:23,108
還可以和家人團聚
791
01:01:23,998 --> 01:01:30,236
第二件事是因為911，
所以我們告訴全世界最厲害的聰明人都給我待在家裡
792
01:01:31,473 --> 01:01:34,246
你想要經過我們的機場，不不，我們不要你
793
01:01:38,104 --> 01:01:43,056
事實上，我今日和不同人的交流主題是...
794
01:01:43,091 --> 01:01:48,105
我很擔心，我今天說的故事是...
795
01:01:48,140 --> 01:01:49,929
剛好和這點有關
796
01:01:49,964 --> 01:01:55,365
我八年級的女兒代表Maryland參加國家歷史日
797
01:01:55,936 --> 01:01:59,098
她的專題是Sputnik如何引起網際網路的發展
798
01:01:59,133 --> 01:02:03,006
Sputnik導致國防部網路DARPA、接著是DARPA網、接著是網際網路
799
01:02:03,041 --> 01:02:05,651
某件發生在五十年前的事
800
01:02:06,292 --> 01:02:08,850
引發了另一件完全不同的事情
|
701
00:54:44,664 --> 00:54:46,941
That's all China's doing
702
00:54:49,075 --> 00:54:51,462
so for understandable reasons.
703
00:54:51,463 --> 00:54:56,701
Again it gets back to that platform it can
tell you a lot about, you know why it's three dollars a gallon.
704
00:55:00,038 --> 00:55:04,287
I don't have a magic cure for any country,
705
00:55:04,322 --> 00:55:12,014
but it does seem to me that what World Bank
has identified around those issues of... reform retail is one.
706
00:55:13,906 --> 00:55:16,319
And the other is around how we collaborate
with them.
707
00:55:16,354 --> 00:55:19,963
I will give a quick example coz you’’e
asking an important question that I've given in the book.
708
00:55:19,998 --> 00:55:25,572
HP did a very interesting project in India.
They adopted a village in their business.
709
00:55:25,761 --> 00:55:30,891
One day they woke up and said, “There are
billion of people who live on two or three dollars a day,
710
00:55:30,926 --> 00:55:34,509
lot more than live at fifty and a hundred
thousand dollars,
711
00:55:34,544 --> 00:55:39,280
and we have to think about how we can
actually create products at a profit that will sell to them.”
712
00:55:39,315 --> 00:55:42,864
So they adopted a village. It is in the
book, so I don’t remember the village in India.
713
00:55:42,899 --> 00:55:48,937
And they went around to spend six months
there just asking people. Try to understand what they need, what they
need most:
714
00:55:49,771 --> 00:55:51,244
one of that that HP could provide.
715
00:55:51,279 --> 00:55:55,643
One of things that they discovered was that
people really need cameras to take pictures with,
716
00:55:56,364 --> 00:56:00,043
that they need cameras to get licenses, you
know, pictures get licenses with.
717
00:56:00,078 --> 00:56:07,284
To get a picture for license, sometimes
people have to walk all day from one village to the nearby town that
happened to have a photographer.
718
00:56:07,319 --> 00:56:08,659
HP said. “No problem.
719
00:56:08,694 --> 00:56:09,722
We do pictures, you know.”
720
00:56:11,251 --> 00:56:17,576
So they said giving cameras, and the other
is printers it can print out pictures.
721
00:56:17,611 --> 00:56:19,754
No problem. Then they discovered no
electricity.
722
00:56:21,187 --> 00:56:23,058
So they thought about that for a while,
723
00:56:23,093 --> 00:56:29,426
And they said, “No problem. Solar-powered
cameras and picture printers.”
724
00:56:29,461 --> 00:56:35,662
And they developed a mobile solar-powered
picture lab, basically photography and printer.
725
00:56:36,384 --> 00:56:41,575
And they gave it to a women's NGO in this
town, in this village they are working in.
726
00:56:42,439 --> 00:56:46,278
They want to see how they would use,
whether it could produce a business.
727
00:56:46,313 --> 00:56:52,270
Well, what they discovered first of all,
say, guess what, you know in India villages like anybody else, they love
pictures.
728
00:56:52,305 --> 00:56:57,721
So suddenly they want a family picture,
wedding pictures, pictures when the visitors came to town.
729
00:56:57,756 --> 00:57:02,665
So sort of all kinds of, these women
developed a great business out of this.
730
00:57:03,923 --> 00:57:10,313
After a year, HP came to them. “That's
great. So great you guys have a business! Give us our camera back.”
731
00:57:12,313 --> 00:57:16,802
And they said, “What do you mean? What're
you talking about? We've got a business going here.”
732
00:57:19,190 --> 00:57:24,489
HP said, “You can keep the camera if you
can come up with a business plan.
733
00:57:24,524 --> 00:57:28,249
Will you pay us?
734
00:57:28,284 --> 00:57:31,137
Pay fixed amount a month, for the paper and
for rental the camera.” And they did.
735
00:57:32,185 --> 00:57:34,842
Coz that's only way sustainable as only
gets a scale.
736
00:57:34,877 --> 00:57:37,657
If it's, you know, sustainable in that way
737
00:57:37,692 --> 00:57:39,419
so collaborating that way,
738
00:57:39,454 --> 00:57:41,550
not just coming say what you people need is
this,
739
00:57:41,585 --> 00:57:48,604
but really getting down, very low,
understanding what people need and then trying to design solution around
their life.
740
00:57:48,639 --> 00:57:51,387
I think that's part of the answer.
741
00:57:53,693 --> 00:57:54,715
That's one. The student. Yeah! All of a
way, you look like a student
742
00:57:56,291 --> 00:58:00,150
(Student 2) What are the implications of
these ideas bring the inspirations by MIT?
743
00:58:00,185 --> 00:58:03,071
(Friedman) What the implications for MIT?
Wow!
744
00:58:04,647 --> 00:58:10,935
That's why I have been here all day! Really
think about it and having the pleasure to talk about.
745
00:58:10,970 --> 00:58:17,207
I think the open university you're doing is
really a pioneering thing. I think it's incredible.
746
00:58:17,242 --> 00:58:18,975
I've learned more about it today.
747
00:58:19,010 --> 00:58:26,712
I think it's an enormously powerful
platform that is going to. I am certain inspire a lot more copy cats.
748
00:58:26,747 --> 00:58:29,834
That's part of the answer to this young
man's question as well:
749
00:58:30,370 --> 00:58:32,833
making that knowledge available.
750
00:58:32,868 --> 00:58:34,977
I even think what's going on today is
really exciting.
751
00:58:35,012 --> 00:58:37,784
We’re connecting all the knowledge pool in
the world together.
752
00:58:37,819 --> 00:58:39,505
That's what the flat world means.
753
00:58:39,540 --> 00:58:43,448
What your open university is doing is
actually a key connecter on all of that.
754
00:58:43,483 --> 00:58:46,560
So I think that you should trigger a huge
period of innovation,
755
00:58:46,595 --> 00:58:53,880
because the next breakthrough bioscience
could come a fifteen... Motorola is working on a twelve dollar cell
phone now.
756
00:58:53,915 --> 00:59:00,233
So twelve dollar Internet enables cell
phone that can download Google and MIT's open university and wow!
757
00:59:00,268 --> 00:59:04,187
Who knows what's the next innovation in
bioscience will come from?
758
00:59:04,222 --> 00:59:08,299
Maybe a fifteen year old in Romania who
downloads human genome, you know.
759
00:59:09,788 --> 00:59:13,964
So I think what you are doing is really,
really powerful.
760
00:59:13,999 --> 00:59:17,143
I guess one of the things of the themes of
our discussions today here has been.
761
00:59:18,013 --> 00:59:23,101
I think our country is really heading in a
wrong direction at the macro level on this subject.
762
00:59:25,165 --> 00:59:29,052
I'm not here to be cute, but we got people
that bring respect.
763
00:59:29,087 --> 00:59:32,294
We have movie theaters in Kansas that won't
show movies on evolution, you know,
764
00:59:32,329 --> 00:59:38,357
at the time when the world is going in this
direction, and we stand to be the greatest beneficiaries of it.
765
00:59:38,392 --> 00:59:40,436
I think if we have all the secrets of the
sources:
766
00:59:40,471 --> 00:59:42,154
the country’s great research universities,
767
00:59:42,189 --> 00:59:45,163
still rule of law, efficient markets,
768
00:59:45,198 --> 00:59:47,556
intellectual property protection,
769
00:59:47,591 --> 00:59:50,523
but we are not tending to the secrets of
ourselves.
770
00:59:51,532 --> 00:59:55,547
Last year, the National Science Foundation
cut its budget by 100 million dollars.
771
00:59:55,582 --> 00:59:59,580
That's just...,I mean, we had its budget
cut by congress by a hundred million dollars, excuse me.
772
01:00:00,814 --> 01:00:03,070
I mean that's just flat out stupid, you
know.
773
01:00:03,926 --> 01:00:08,334
In this moment in time when the world is
flat and the world is going, you know.
774
01:00:14,340 --> 01:00:16,404
What I really feel and what I argue in this
book is that
775
01:00:16,439 --> 01:00:18,570
we’re in a quiet crisis right now.
776
01:00:20,051 --> 01:00:25,686
And a Quiet crisis is that... This is a
term coined by Shirley Ann Jackson who's a graduate of MIT.
777
01:00:25,721 --> 01:00:32,097
She's the president of Rensselaer Polytech,
first African American woman to win a PhD in physics from MIT.
778
01:00:33,474 --> 01:00:35,770
And, she calls it the quiet crisis.
779
01:00:35,805 --> 01:00:36,908
She calls it that because
780
01:00:36,943 --> 01:00:45,387
she was part of that generation inspired to
go into science and engineering by Sputnik and President Kennedy's
vision of putting a man on the moon.
781
01:00:49,116 --> 01:00:52,666
And that generation is retiring and dying
out
782
01:00:52,701 --> 01:00:54,436
and, we all know, we didn't replace them.
783
01:00:54,703 --> 01:00:59,153
We imported them, their replacement, from
India and China, among other places.
784
01:01:01,810 --> 01:01:03,761
Since 911, two things have happened:
785
01:01:03,796 --> 01:01:05,097
One is the world went flat
786
01:01:05,132 --> 01:01:08,952
And when the world goes flat, you can
innovate without having to emigrate.
787
01:01:09,729 --> 01:01:13,650
And when you can innovate without having to
emigrate, who needs to come to chilly Boston?
788
01:01:13,685 --> 01:01:15,629
When you could stay home, in your own
culture,
789
01:01:15,664 --> 01:01:20,756
live a very high standard of living, work
for a cutting-edge global corporation, in cutting-edge science,
790
01:01:20,791 --> 01:01:23,108
and be home with your family.
791
01:01:23,998 --> 01:01:30,236
And second thing that happened was 911. And
so we're telling all the first rung intellectual draft choices in the
world to stay home.
792
01:01:31,473 --> 01:01:34,246
You want to went through our airport? No,
no, we don't want you here. You know, I'm sorry.
793
01:01:38,104 --> 01:01:43,056
And so actually, the theme of my
conversations today with different folks that interacted with is that
794
01:01:43,091 --> 01:01:48,105
I'm really worried. I mean the story I've
told today is
795
01:01:48,140 --> 01:01:49,929
just triggers. The point is that…
796
01:01:49,964 --> 01:01:55,365
My daughter for National History Day, which
she's in 8th grade representing Maryland.
797
01:01:55,936 --> 01:01:59,098
Her project was: How Sputnik led to the
Internet.
798
01:01:59,133 --> 01:02:03,006
You know Sputnik let to DARPA, let to DARPA
Net, let to
799
01:02:03,041 --> 01:02:05,651
something that happened 50 years ago,
800
01:02:06,292 --> 01:02:08,850
in reaction to something totally different.
|
|
801
01:02:08,885 --> 01:02:13,067
我們對Sputnik的反應，創造了現今的網路
802
01:02:13,683 --> 01:02:15,115
我真正擔心的是...
803
01:02:15,868 --> 01:02:18,107
是我們對911的反應
804
01:02:18,142 --> 01:02:20,731
幾千個小的步驟
805
01:02:20,766 --> 01:02:33,057
從在Sinai的簽證官拒發簽證、一個大提案被退件、研究論文被阻止
806
01:02:33,092 --> 01:02:36,907
到沒有花掉的經費，或是花在別的地方的經費
807
01:02:36,942 --> 01:02:41,517
這些一切的總和
808
01:02:41,552 --> 01:02:50,838
將可能會吃掉我們和這個世界的開放性、互動性和交流性的基礎
809
01:02:50,839 --> 01:02:52,961
那就是美國的根本DNA
810
01:02:53,933 --> 01:03:00,253
五十年之後，我們會醒過來，
發現這一切都是因為我們對911的反應
811
01:03:00,853 --> 01:03:04,396
我真的非常非常擔心這件事
812
01:03:04,431 --> 01:03:08,540
這就是我們經歷的寧靜危機，部分的寧靜危機
813
01:03:08,575 --> 01:03:10,218
另外一部份則是
814
01:03:10,253 --> 01:03:13,565
我有時認為我們需要一個嶄新的方式
815
01:03:13,600 --> 01:03:16,608
來對付所有的夷平機制和之後的影響
816
01:03:16,705 --> 01:03:19,961
我們的政府卻只想要參與舊的方式
817
01:03:21,187 --> 01:03:25,474
現在在我來看只是在繞圈子
818
01:03:25,509 --> 01:03:30,428
我想我們要有固定的社會福利，或許有私人帳戶或許沒有...
819
01:03:31,179 --> 01:03:36,059
但我的確認為，這絕不是我國現在最重要的事情
820
01:03:36,094 --> 01:03:38,355
所以我們的確是在一個寧靜危機中
821
01:03:41,760 --> 01:03:42,990
我們正身處在一個寧靜危機中
822
01:03:43,025 --> 01:03:45,213
而正如我朋友Paul
Romer說的一樣
823
01:03:45,248 --> 01:03:48,086
最好不要浪費危機帶來的機會
824
01:03:51,406 --> 01:03:52,854
上面那位，再來一個問題
825
01:03:53,773 --> 01:04:24,195
你說每個能連上網路的人都在平坦的舞台上競爭，
但是否有可能其他高度集中的領域有所例外？
舉例來說，像是能源的維護、傳輸、提供如果越來越分散，是否會讓個體越來越孤立？
826
01:04:24,230 --> 01:04:25,723
我並不這麼認為。
827
01:04:25,758 --> 01:04:31,284
我認為趨勢是...我要再提一下12美金的Motorola手機
828
01:04:31,319 --> 01:04:33,204
以及Google連線的能力
829
01:04:33,239 --> 01:04:36,579
以及麻省理工的開放式課程
830
01:04:36,614 --> 01:04:42,067
我認為這些事物將擁有很大的、解放一切的潛力
831
01:04:43,075 --> 01:04:51,533
你說的那些趨勢我不會說它們不會發生，
但絕不會是唯一的事件或是不可避免的
832
01:04:51,568 --> 01:05:00,343
有關於開放式課程，人們目前
很難單靠下載而沒有第二層的傳遞者而學習
833
01:05:03,772 --> 01:05:07,594
在抄筆記的各位，是你說的啊，不是我說的...
834
01:05:15,601 --> 01:05:22,512
我認為，要讓每個人都可以下載麻省理工的課程學習還有很長一段路要走
835
01:05:23,142 --> 01:05:28,798
我認為學校、教師和互動所扮演的角色
836
01:05:30,662 --> 01:05:36,125
以及你所謂的第二層傳遞者將會持續其重要性很長一段時間
837
01:05:37,388 --> 01:05:39,277
我認為...
838
01:05:41,172 --> 01:05:43,125
我們今日討論中忽略了一件事
839
01:05:43,160 --> 01:05:48,690
當世界這樣平坦時發生了兩件事，我們只注意到其中一件
840
01:05:48,725 --> 01:05:50,256
其中一個是世界市場的擴大
841
01:05:50,291 --> 01:05:52,864
勞動力的增加，消費者的增加
842
01:05:52,899 --> 01:05:55,689
因為我們正把這些資源庫連結在一起
843
01:05:56,506 --> 01:06:01,184
但人們忽略的是，它們不僅增加，而且還是越變越複雜
844
01:06:01,219 --> 01:06:05,152
當它越快變複雜的時候，代表製造出越來越多工作
845
01:06:05,187 --> 01:06:07,145
越來越多的利基市場
846
01:06:07,785 --> 01:06:11,738
我要給的例子是，各位爸媽不要驚慌
847
01:06:11,773 --> 01:06:15,897
你們的子女可能有一天
會回家說我要成為搜尋引擎排名工程師
848
01:06:16,921 --> 01:06:18,241
你抓抓頭
849
01:06:18,276 --> 01:06:21,345
你可以成為會計師，可以當眼科醫師
850
01:06:21,380 --> 01:06:24,234
你卻非要當個搜尋引擎排名提高者，那是啥？
851
01:06:24,269 --> 01:06:26,174
六年前根本沒有Google呢
852
01:06:26,791 --> 01:06:33,264
因為Google的關係，出現了一個新的產業，叫做搜尋引擎排名提高
853
01:06:33,299 --> 01:06:40,114
如果我輸入行李箱，
而Thomas
Friedman的行李箱排名比Samsonite要前面
854
01:06:40,149 --> 01:06:42,602
會影響數百萬美金的市場
855
01:06:42,637 --> 01:06:46,802
所以，這只是一個小例子，
市場不只是越變越小，也越變越複雜
856
01:06:47,370 --> 01:06:51,690
因此，我認為，如果你是知識界的人，
隨著時間的流逝，在你身上會發生最糟糕的事情是...
857
01:06:51,725 --> 01:06:55,673
你將必須要水平的移動到另一個不同的知識工作中
858
01:06:56,985 --> 01:07:03,087
如果你不是在知識的世界中，你只能垂直移動
而垂直移動的障礙將越來越大
859
01:07:03,122 --> 01:07:06,045
因此，我認為我們社會的挑戰是
860
01:07:06,080 --> 01:07:10,733
是如何將那些不處在知識世界中的人移動到知識的世界來
861
01:07:12,908 --> 01:07:19,477
因此，今日的首要重點並不是社會福利的私人帳戶
862
01:07:19,512 --> 01:07:24,161
而是如何保證每個想要獲得教育的美國人
863
01:07:24,196 --> 01:07:28,577
不管是技術學校、大學或是社區大學
864
01:07:28,612 --> 01:07:29,961
都能夠獲得教育
865
01:07:29,996 --> 01:07:33,599
我認為我是我們社會目前的當務之急
866
01:07:33,634 --> 01:07:36,539
如果你想要一個穩定和平等的社會
867
01:07:36,574 --> 01:07:41,346
不僅只是給那些能夠連上網路的天才
868
01:07:41,381 --> 01:07:42,802
而是提供給每個人
869
01:07:44,970 --> 01:07:47,289
所以，這才是我認為該集中注意力的地方
870
01:07:49,474 --> 01:07:51,394
我趕快再接受最後一個問題，你！
871
01:07:53,054 --> 01:08:13,041
我的問題是隨著知識越來越普及，
除了歐洲之外，工作就會變得越來越便宜，
會不會以後只有美髮這類工作是必須面對面的？
872
01:08:13,076 --> 01:08:16,834
天哪，我認為二次世界大戰的時候可能也會這樣
873
01:08:16,869 --> 01:08:23,225
我們挺立不搖是唯一的工業基地，
歐洲一片廢墟，日本一片廢墟，亞洲也是一樣
874
01:08:23,260 --> 01:08:24,550
我們作了世界上最瘋狂的事情
875
01:08:24,585 --> 01:08:30,481
我們把他們扶起來成為競爭者，
最後的結果是所有人的生活水準都提升了
876
01:08:30,516 --> 01:08:34,313
他們追上了我們，然後我們一起向前
877
01:08:34,348 --> 01:08:39,838
因為市場不只越變越大，也越來越複雜
需要有各種不同專長的人們
878
01:08:40,051 --> 01:08:41,983
因為這是很難發現的
879
01:08:42,792 --> 01:08:46,133
因為你很難注意到有六個人在搜尋引擎排名提昇公司被雇用
880
01:08:46,168 --> 01:08:50,556
卻很容易注意到客服中心有250人被資遣
881
01:08:50,591 --> 01:08:54,014
我想你忽略了這個現象
882
01:08:54,049 --> 01:08:54,598
你，最後最快的問題
883
01:08:55,768 --> 01:08:59,135
問：你要如何保證開放社會的安全
你要如何讓開放社會安全？
884
01:08:59,808 --> 01:09:01,278
我要去簽書了
885
01:09:04,333 --> 01:09:06,846
你總是會後悔為什麼要接受最後一個問題
886
01:09:10,021 --> 01:09:14,048
事實上，這正好是本書最後一章節的內容
887
01:09:16,127 --> 01:09:16,910
因為...
888
01:09:16,945 --> 01:09:20,263
你知道的，總是在我書裡面
889
01:09:21,337 --> 01:09:24,934
書的最後一章叫做911或是119
890
01:09:25,941 --> 01:09:29,023
我基本的想法是，當世界變平時
891
01:09:30,333 --> 01:09:32,163
一切都變成商品
892
01:09:32,198 --> 01:09:33,796
只有一件事情例外
893
01:09:33,831 --> 01:09:35,364
那就是想像力
894
01:09:36,931 --> 01:09:40,061
每個人都可以獲得合作的工具
895
01:09:40,096 --> 01:09:43,014
平坦世界將會幫助Mphasis和Al-Qaeda
896
01:09:43,049 --> 01:09:45,974
Al-Qaeda只不過是個開放原始碼的供應鍊
897
01:09:46,009 --> 01:09:47,582
就只是這樣而已
898
01:09:48,286 --> 01:09:51,255
他們都在利用平坦的世界
899
01:09:51,895 --> 01:09:54,494
真正的差異在於
900
01:09:54,529 --> 01:09:56,749
既然每個人都可以獲得這些工具
|
801
01:02:08,885 --> 01:02:13,067
Our reaction to Sputnik leads to the
Internet today.
802
01:02:13,683 --> 01:02:15,115
What I really worry about
803
01:02:15,868 --> 01:02:18,107
is our reaction to 911:
804
01:02:18,142 --> 01:02:20,731
a thousand little steps,
805
01:02:20,766 --> 01:02:33,057
From a visa rejection by a visa officer in
Sinai, to a grant proposal denied to a research. You know, paper
blocked,
806
01:02:33,092 --> 01:02:36,907
to funds not spent, or funds spent
somewhere else.
807
01:02:36,942 --> 01:02:41,517
That we could get the total sum of these
things
808
01:02:41,552 --> 01:02:50,838
would be something that really eats at the
very DNA of openness, interoperability, and interactiveness with the
world,
809
01:02:50,839 --> 01:02:52,961
i.e. the American DNA.
810
01:02:53,933 --> 01:03:00,253
And at 50 years we'll wake up and said, “We
did all of that in reaction to 911.”
811
01:03:00,853 --> 01:03:04,396
And so I really, really worry about that.
812
01:03:04,431 --> 01:03:08,540
I think we're in a quite crisis right now.
That's part of the quiet crisis.
813
01:03:08,575 --> 01:03:10,218
The other part is simply…
814
01:03:10,253 --> 01:03:13,565
You know the time when I think we need a
new ‘New Deal’
815
01:03:13,600 --> 01:03:16,608
to deal with flatism and all the
implications of it.
816
01:03:16,705 --> 01:03:19,961
We have an administration trying to take
apart the old ‘New Deal’
817
01:03:21,187 --> 01:03:25,474
and that's just like loopy from my point to
view at this time.
818
01:03:25,509 --> 01:03:30,428
I think with the fixed social security,
maybe private account maybe not, there's argument for both but
819
01:03:31,179 --> 01:03:36,059
it is surely, in my view, NOT the most
important priority for this country.
820
01:03:36,094 --> 01:03:38,355
So we're in a quite crisis.
821
01:03:41,760 --> 01:03:42,990
So we're in a quite crisis
822
01:03:43,025 --> 01:03:45,213
as my friend Paul Romer says,
823
01:03:45,248 --> 01:03:48,086
“A crisis is a terrible thing to waste.”
824
01:03:51,406 --> 01:03:52,854
One more from up there
825
01:03:53,773 --> 01:04:24,195
(Student 3) You said that everyone can plug
and play is competing in equalized field. Is there other result on
something highly focused? Say, for example, electric power. If
everything else from distribution to maintenance and supply is spread
throughout, doesn’t it make subject of what you’ve done and kept in very
isolated, geographically or whatever…”
826
01:04:24,230 --> 01:04:25,723
(Friedman) I don't really think so.
827
01:04:25,758 --> 01:04:31,284
I see the trends really...I will just go
back to the 12-dollar-Motorola-phone,
828
01:04:31,319 --> 01:04:33,204
and Google hookup,
829
01:04:33,239 --> 01:04:36,579
and MIT's Open University.
830
01:04:36,614 --> 01:04:42,067
It seems to me this has the potential to be
enormously democratizing at the same time.
831
01:04:43,075 --> 01:04:51,533
So I don't think those trends may manifest
themselves.
I wouldn't say they won't, but it doesn't
seem to me inevitable or certain that that would be the only thing that
happens.
832
01:04:51,568 --> 01:05:00,343
(Voice) What happened to the second tier
players? Get more Open Courseware?
833
01:05:03,772 --> 01:05:07,594
(Friedman) You asked that, I didn't say
that, okay? Everybody takes his notes.
834
01:05:15,601 --> 01:05:22,512
I think that we're a long, long way from
everybody being able to learn by just downloading MIT software.
835
01:05:23,142 --> 01:05:28,798
I think I really believe that, you know,
the role of schools and interaction and teachers.
836
01:05:30,662 --> 01:05:36,125
And what you called the second tier players
are still gonna be very very important for a long time.
837
01:05:37,388 --> 01:05:39,277
It seems to me that
838
01:05:41,172 --> 01:05:43,125
one of things that's kinda missed in the
discussion is that
839
01:05:43,160 --> 01:05:48,690
when the world goes flat like this it seems
when two things happened, and we only focused on one.
840
01:05:48,725 --> 01:05:50,256
One is the global market increases
841
01:05:50,291 --> 01:05:52,864
Both the supply of labor and, the supply of
consumers.
842
01:05:52,899 --> 01:05:55,689
Because we're connecting all these pools
together
843
01:05:56,506 --> 01:06:01,184
But I think what people miss is that it
doesn’t just increase, it gets more complex faster.
844
01:06:01,219 --> 01:06:05,152
When it gets more complex faster means it
produces more and more new jobs,
845
01:06:05,187 --> 01:06:07,145
more and more new niches.
846
01:06:07,785 --> 01:06:11,738
So, an example,I would like to give is,
your mom, dad out there won’t be surprised,
847
01:06:11,773 --> 01:06:15,897
if your son or daughter comes home and
says, “I wanna be a search engine optimizer when I grow up.”
848
01:06:16,921 --> 01:06:18,241
You scratch your head.
849
01:06:18,276 --> 01:06:21,345
“You could be an accountant, you could be
an ophthalmologist
850
01:06:21,380 --> 01:06:24,234
You’ve got to be a search engine optimizer?
What is that?”
851
01:06:24,269 --> 01:06:26,174
Well, six years ago Google didn't exist.
852
01:06:26,791 --> 01:06:33,264
And now as a result of Google, a whole new
industry has been sprawn, called ‘search engine optimizing’.
853
01:06:33,299 --> 01:06:40,114
So if I go onto Google and I type in
"suitcase", and Thomas Friedman's suitcase comes up before Samsonite's
suitcase,
854
01:06:40,149 --> 01:06:42,602
millions of dollars are at stake.
855
01:06:42,637 --> 01:06:46,802
So, just a tiny example, the market isn't
just growing, it's getting more complex.
856
01:06:47,370 --> 01:06:51,690
So it seems to me that the worst thing if
you're a knowledge person that's gonna happen to you over time is that
857
01:06:51,725 --> 01:06:55,673
you’ll have to move horizontally into a
different knowledge job.
858
01:06:56,985 --> 01:07:03,087
If you're not in the knowledge world, then
you've gotta move vertically, and the vertical leap is going to get
higher and higher as we go along.
859
01:07:03,122 --> 01:07:06,045
And that's why the challenge I think for
our society
860
01:07:06,080 --> 01:07:10,733
is how to get more people in the
non-knowledge world into the knowledge world.
861
01:07:12,908 --> 01:07:19,477
And that's why, to me, the priority today
would not be social security private accounts.
862
01:07:19,512 --> 01:07:24,161
It would be how to insure that every
American who wants to share education:
863
01:07:24,196 --> 01:07:28,577
technical school, college or community
college,
864
01:07:28,612 --> 01:07:29,961
is able to get it.
865
01:07:29,996 --> 01:07:33,599
I think that is the absolute priority of
our society today.
866
01:07:33,634 --> 01:07:36,539
If you want to have a stable and equal
society,
867
01:07:36,574 --> 01:07:41,346
for not just for the geniuses who can plug
and play from anywhere,
868
01:07:41,381 --> 01:07:42,802
but for everybody else.
869
01:07:44,970 --> 01:07:47,289
And so, that's why I'd be putting my focus
right now.
870
01:07:49,474 --> 01:07:51,394
I would take one more quick when done,
yeah, you!
871
01:07:53,054 --> 01:08:13,041
(Student 4) I’m just scared about the
future in terms of jobs, because it's always gonna be cheaper if you
have people of knowledge base. It's gonna be cheaper for almost anywhere
else except for Europe, to hire people. So does it mean, like, you know,
jobs like hairdressing will gonna be the one where acutally face to face
with people?
872
01:08:13,076 --> 01:08:16,834
(Friedman) It’s true to some extent, but,
gosh, it seems to me that would have been true after WWII also.
873
01:08:16,869 --> 01:08:23,225
I mean we stood to drive the world. We're
the only industrial base. Japan was decimated, Asia was decimated,
Europe was decimated.
874
01:08:23,260 --> 01:08:24,550
We did the craziest thing in the world.
875
01:08:24,585 --> 01:08:30,481
We built both of them up into competitors
and that result was everybody's standard of living in the end rose.
876
01:08:30,516 --> 01:08:34,313
They caught up to us and we, then together,
went ahead.
877
01:08:34,348 --> 01:08:39,838
And that's because the market doesn't just
get bigger, it gets more complicated. People then specialize in
different things.
878
01:08:40,051 --> 01:08:41,983
And because that's hard to see.
879
01:08:42,792 --> 01:08:46,133
It’s hard to see 6 people being hired at
the search engine optimizing firm
880
01:08:46,168 --> 01:08:50,556
and easy to see, you know, 250 people being
laid off at the call center.
881
01:08:50,591 --> 01:08:54,014
That I think you missed that phenomenon.
882
01:08:54,049 --> 01:08:54,598
Really quickly, you
883
01:08:55,768 --> 01:08:59,135
(stuent 5)How do you keep an open societly
safe?
884
01:08:59,808 --> 01:09:01,278
(Friedman) Gotta go sign the book now.
885
01:09:04,333 --> 01:09:06,846
You know you always regret taking the last
question.
886
01:09:10,021 --> 01:09:14,048
It’s actually though, in some way it's in
the last chapter of the book
887
01:09:16,127 --> 01:09:16,910
because...
888
01:09:16,945 --> 01:09:20,263
there's always a tie-in.
889
01:09:21,337 --> 01:09:24,934
What I argued in the last chapter of the
book which is called ‘9-11 or 11-9’.
890
01:09:25,941 --> 01:09:29,023
Because, what I basically argue, when the
world gets flat,
891
01:09:30,333 --> 01:09:32,163
everything basically gets commoditized,
892
01:09:32,198 --> 01:09:33,796
except one thing,
893
01:09:33,831 --> 01:09:35,364
and that's imagination.
894
01:09:36,931 --> 01:09:40,061
The tools for collaboration are going to be
made available to everyone
895
01:09:40,096 --> 01:09:43,014
and the flat world is a friend of Mphasis
and Al-Qaeda.
896
01:09:43,049 --> 01:09:45,974
Al-Qaeda is just an open source global
supply chain.
897
01:09:46,009 --> 01:09:47,582
So all it is today.
898
01:09:48,286 --> 01:09:51,255
So they both play off the flat world.
899
01:09:51,895 --> 01:09:54,494
The real differentiator,
900
01:09:54,529 --> 01:09:56,749
if the tools are going to be available to
everyone,
|
|
901
01:09:56,784 --> 01:09:58,614
只是在於你們怎麼使用這些工具
902
01:09:58,649 --> 01:10:00,806
你賦予它們什麼樣的想像力
903
01:10:00,807 --> 01:10:03,461
在過去的二十年中，我們看到了
904
01:10:03,496 --> 01:10:06,581
是兩種對抗的想像力
905
01:10:06,616 --> 01:10:10,293
一種是119的想像力，擊垮了柏林圍牆
906
01:10:10,328 --> 01:10:13,429
另一種則是911的想像力，擊垮了世貿雙塔
907
01:10:14,116 --> 01:10:18,597
1989年九月，在Hungary的某人
908
01:10:18,632 --> 01:10:20,124
我不知道他是誰
909
01:10:20,159 --> 01:10:23,387
但有人說了，想像一下
910
01:10:23,422 --> 01:10:29,298
想像一下，如果我們對東德開放邊境
911
01:10:29,333 --> 01:10:31,499
然後我們對Austria也開放邊境
912
01:10:31,534 --> 01:10:36,914
所有的東德人都可以經由Hungary前往Austria
913
01:10:36,949 --> 01:10:38,802
那就會擊垮柏林圍牆
914
01:10:38,837 --> 01:10:40,658
有人曾經這麼說
915
01:10:41,315 --> 01:10:44,203
很不幸的，我們也知道
916
01:10:44,238 --> 01:10:46,586
在阿富汗的坎達哈
917
01:10:46,621 --> 01:10:54,067
有人說：想像一下，
如果我們破壞世貿雙塔94層到98層之間，我們可以擊垮雙塔
918
01:10:54,102 --> 01:10:58,028
這就是今日世界兩種對抗的想像力
919
01:10:58,740 --> 01:11:03,098
對我來說，我認為，甚至這樣說聽起來有點可笑
920
01:11:03,133 --> 01:11:04,625
但這就是我們面對的挑戰
921
01:11:04,660 --> 01:11:07,459
我們如何讓更多人有正面的想像力？
922
01:11:08,243 --> 01:11:11,995
因為這是我們當代最重要的策略目標
923
01:11:12,588 --> 01:11:19,045
因為工具已經開放，而在開放的社會中
不會有足夠的警察去管制每個開口
924
01:11:19,080 --> 01:11:23,574
所以這些軟體必須是由內而發的，而不是由外而起的
925
01:11:26,246 --> 01:11:31,077
你要怎麼作呢？我在最後一章拋磚引玉丟出一些概念
926
01:11:31,112 --> 01:11:37,812
如何讓更多的人擁有正向的想像力
927
01:11:37,847 --> 01:11:40,028
我給的其中一個例子事實上是Ebay
928
01:11:40,891 --> 01:11:42,675
Ebay就像是一個國家一樣
929
01:11:42,710 --> 01:11:45,176
是最接近虛擬國家的事物
930
01:11:45,211 --> 01:11:48,243
數千億美金的金融、三千八百萬人口
931
01:11:49,276 --> 01:11:53,059
eBay的負責人Meg
Whitman為這本書告訴我一個很棒的故事
932
01:11:53,094 --> 01:11:54,379
時間正好在他們公開上市之後
933
01:11:57,107 --> 01:12:00,451
股價上了80美金，正好在網路泡沫盛期
934
01:12:00,486 --> 01:12:02,202
跌到50美金，漲到80美金
935
01:12:02,237 --> 01:12:04,547
有天她在辦公室中
936
01:12:04,582 --> 01:12:07,235
她告訴我說：秘書走了進來
937
01:12:07,270 --> 01:12:10,475
秘書說，Arthur
Levit打電話來
938
01:12:11,059 --> 01:12:13,794
Arthur
Levit是股票債券交易委員會的主席
939
01:12:13,829 --> 01:12:18,327
你可絕不會想要接到Arthur
Levit的電話，你的股價會天翻地覆
940
01:12:20,424 --> 01:12:22,920
她立刻通知法務長
941
01:12:24,336 --> 01:12:25,567
他們把電話接到擴音器上
942
01:12:26,207 --> 01:12:30,911
她那時開口說：你好，我是Meg
Whitman
943
01:12:30,946 --> 01:12:33,130
他回答，嗨，我是Arthur
Levit
944
01:12:34,690 --> 01:12:37,568
他說我打電話只是因為你們上市了，狀況如何？
945
01:12:37,603 --> 01:12:40,101
他說ACC都順利吧，大家都有盡責吧？
946
01:12:41,853 --> 01:12:43,213
她說，棒極了，再也不能更好了，一切都...
947
01:12:43,248 --> 01:12:44,396
一切都順利極了！
948
01:12:46,637 --> 01:12:49,860
然後他說，我打電話來還有另外一個原因
949
01:12:51,636 --> 01:12:57,428
我剛拿到十個人讚賞我交易的第一顆藍星星
950
01:13:02,455 --> 01:13:05,203
我只是想要告訴你我有多興奮！
951
01:13:06,522 --> 01:13:09,913
顯然他喜歡交易大蕭條前的玻璃製品
952
01:13:12,698 --> 01:13:15,184
Meg告訴我這個故事的原因是...
953
01:13:15,219 --> 01:13:20,281
她說，每個人都喜歡獲得一顆藍星星
954
01:13:22,064 --> 01:13:25,232
每個人都喜歡正面的回饋
955
01:13:25,267 --> 01:13:34,842
如果你是個好公民，每天一起床，
世界上沒有比在eBay可以獲得更多好讚賞的地方了
956
01:13:39,343 --> 01:13:43,702
我們的地球村能夠作些什麼，eBay是個好範例
957
01:13:44,383 --> 01:13:47,766
你要如何讓更多人有正面的想像力？
958
01:13:49,501 --> 01:13:52,709
這的確很有挑戰性，但這確實是我們重要的戰略議題
959
01:13:52,744 --> 01:13:55,582
對我來說，要從美國開始
960
01:13:55,617 --> 01:13:58,113
我們應該輸出希望，而不是恐懼
961
01:14:06,215 --> 01:14:07,960
你知道的，人們就是愛嘲笑美國人
962
01:14:08,559 --> 01:14:12,431
我們的天真，我們瘋狂的樂觀，
我們認為每個問題都有解答
963
01:14:12,466 --> 01:14:15,002
那些愚蠢的的笨蛋美國人...
964
01:14:15,037 --> 01:14:18,649
但事實上，他們嫉妒我們的天真
965
01:14:18,684 --> 01:14:23,601
而美國式的樂觀確實是讓世界繼續轉動的關鍵
966
01:14:24,305 --> 01:14:25,696
當我們輸出恐懼而不是希望時
967
01:14:25,731 --> 01:14:27,839
我們最後只會輸入所有其他人的恐懼
968
01:14:28,559 --> 01:14:32,447
而那卻是我們自從911之後的習慣
969
01:14:32,482 --> 01:14:36,562
所以，請開始散播希望，而不是恐懼，好嗎？
970
01:14:36,597 --> 01:14:37,442
非常感謝各位！
971
01:14:37,477 --> 01:14:40,393
譯者註：我也希望我們所做的事情所散播的是希望
972
01:14:40,428 --> 01:14:44,292
那麼，不管這希望再怎麼渺小，
973
01:14:44,327 --> 01:14:46,399
只要它落地了，就有可能長成參天大樹......
974
01:14:46,434 --> 01:14:48,302
即使我們終將失敗，會被歷史所遺忘...
975
01:14:48,337 --> 01:14:52,945
但那善意總會繼續傳承下去......
976
01:14:52,946 --> 01:14:55,727
......這是朱學恒熬夜翻譯之後的廢話......
977
01:14:55,728 --> 01:14:58,590
希望你真的有看完到最後，哈哈！ |
901
01:09:56,784 --> 01:09:58,614
is what you do with those tools?
902
01:09:58,649 --> 01:10:00,806
What imagination you bring to them?
903
01:10:00,807 --> 01:10:03,461
And what we saw in the last two decades is,
904
01:10:03,496 --> 01:10:06,581
what I argue, two competing forces of
imagination.
905
01:10:06,616 --> 01:10:10,293
One: the imagination of 11-9 that brought
down the Berlin Wall,
906
01:10:10,328 --> 01:10:13,429
And another imagination of 9-11 that
brought down the Twin Towers.
907
01:10:14,116 --> 01:10:18,597
Some one in Hungary, in September, 1989…
908
01:10:18,632 --> 01:10:20,124
I don't know who he was
909
01:10:20,159 --> 01:10:23,387
but somebody said, “Imagine…
910
01:10:23,422 --> 01:10:29,298
imagine if our border to East Germany
opens,
911
01:10:29,333 --> 01:10:31,499
and then we open our border to Austria,
912
01:10:31,534 --> 01:10:36,914
all these people from East Germany could
come out to Hungary and out the back door to Austria.
913
01:10:36,949 --> 01:10:38,802
That could bring down the Berlin Wall.”
914
01:10:38,837 --> 01:10:40,658
Somebody said that.
915
01:10:41,315 --> 01:10:44,203
Unfortunately we also know that
916
01:10:44,238 --> 01:10:46,586
In Kandahar in Afghanistan
917
01:10:46,621 --> 01:10:54,067
Someone said, “Imagine if we hit the Twin
Towers between the 94th and 98th floors, we could bring them down.”
918
01:10:54,102 --> 01:10:58,028
And those are the two competing forms of
imagination in the world today.
919
01:10:58,740 --> 01:11:03,098
It seems to me that, it sounds ridiculous
even to say this,
920
01:11:03,133 --> 01:11:04,625
but this is our challenge:
921
01:11:04,660 --> 01:11:07,459
how do we get more people to have a
positive imagination?
922
01:11:08,243 --> 01:11:11,995
Because that is the most important
strategic issue of our day.
923
01:11:12,588 --> 01:11:19,045
Because the tools are open, and there
aren't enough police to police every opening in the open society.
924
01:11:19,080 --> 01:11:23,574
And so the software has to be internal, not
external.
925
01:11:26,246 --> 01:11:31,077
And, how you do that? I tossed out my own
ideas in the last chapter,
926
01:11:31,112 --> 01:11:37,812
about just how you get more people to have
a positive imagination.
927
01:11:37,847 --> 01:11:40,028
One example I give actually is eBay.
928
01:11:40,891 --> 01:11:42,675
eBay is like a country.
929
01:11:42,710 --> 01:11:45,176
It’s the closest thing to a virtual
country. There is, you know,
930
01:11:45,211 --> 01:11:48,243
hundred-billion-dollar economy, 38 million
people.
931
01:11:49,276 --> 01:11:53,059
Meg Whitman, the head of eBay told me this
wonderful story for the book.
932
01:11:53,094 --> 01:11:54,379
Right after they went public,
933
01:11:57,107 --> 01:12:00,451
stocks going up 80 dollars, right at the
height of the .com bubble,
934
01:12:00,486 --> 01:12:02,202
Down 50, up 80.
935
01:12:02,237 --> 01:12:04,547
So she's in office one day
936
01:12:04,582 --> 01:12:07,235
and the secretary comes in. (She tells the
story in the book.)
937
01:12:07,270 --> 01:12:10,475
And the secretary says, “It's Arthur Levit
on the phone.”
938
01:12:11,059 --> 01:12:13,794
Arthur Levit was head of the Security
Exchange Commission.
939
01:12:13,829 --> 01:12:18,327
You don't wanna get a phone call from
Arthur Levit, you know, your stock going up and down.
940
01:12:20,424 --> 01:12:22,920
She calls in the chief legal counsel
941
01:12:24,336 --> 01:12:25,567
and they put them on the speaker phone.
942
01:12:26,207 --> 01:12:30,911
She says “Hi, this is Meg Whitman.” (She
tells it in a wonderful way.)
943
01:12:30,946 --> 01:12:33,130
And he says, “Hi! This is Arthur Levit.”
944
01:12:34,690 --> 01:12:37,568
He says, “I'm just calling… I noticed you
just went public and how did it all go?
945
01:12:37,603 --> 01:12:40,101
Did the FCC do their job?... you know.”
946
01:12:41,853 --> 01:12:43,213
"Wonderful! Couldn't be better!" she says,
947
01:12:43,248 --> 01:12:44,396
"Everything totally smooth!"
948
01:12:46,637 --> 01:12:49,860
And then he says. “Well, there is another
reason for my phone call.
949
01:12:51,636 --> 01:12:57,428
I just got my first blue star on eBay for
having 10 trades that were approved by other people.
950
01:13:02,455 --> 01:13:05,203
And I just wanna tell you how exciting that
was!”
951
01:13:06,522 --> 01:13:09,913
He trades in pre-depression era glass,
evidently.
952
01:13:12,698 --> 01:13:15,184
And Meg told me this story because
953
01:13:15,219 --> 01:13:20,281
she just said, “Everybody loves to get a
blue star. :)”
954
01:13:22,064 --> 01:13:25,232
Everybody loves positive affirmation.
955
01:13:25,267 --> 01:13:34,842
And where in the world can more people get
up, and see people say nice things about them than eBay, every morning?
If you're a good citizen, you know,…
956
01:13:39,343 --> 01:13:43,702
So, what I'm really talking about is a kind
of what the village does, and eBay is a good example of it.
957
01:13:44,383 --> 01:13:47,766
How you get more people to have a positive
imagination?
958
01:13:49,501 --> 01:13:52,709
I think that's a really hard challenge, but
it is a strategic issue.
959
01:13:52,744 --> 01:13:55,582
And it starts with America, seems to me,
960
01:13:55,617 --> 01:13:58,113
that goes back to exporting hope, but not
fear.
961
01:14:06,215 --> 01:14:07,960
You know, when we… well, people love to
make fun of America
962
01:14:08,559 --> 01:14:12,431
Our naivety, our crazy optimism, we think
every problem has a solution.
963
01:14:12,466 --> 01:14:15,002
I mean those silly stupid Americans, you
know.
964
01:14:15,037 --> 01:14:18,649
But at the end of the day, they envy that
naivety.
965
01:14:18,684 --> 01:14:23,601
And American optimism is really critical
for keeping the world to go around.
966
01:14:24,305 --> 01:14:25,696
And when we export fear instead of hope,
967
01:14:25,731 --> 01:14:27,839
We end up importing everyone else's fears.
968
01:14:28,559 --> 01:14:32,447
And that's the sort of habit we've gotten
into since 9-11.
969
01:14:32,482 --> 01:14:36,562
So with that thought go out and export
hope, not fear, okay?
970
01:14:36,597 --> 01:14:37,442
Thanks very much!
971
01:14:37,477 --> 01:14:40,393
By the transcriber: I also wish that what
we're doing is exporting hope
972
01:14:40,428 --> 01:14:44,292
No matter how small the seeds of our hope
are
973
01:14:44,327 --> 01:14:46,399
With soil, they grow to giant trees
974
01:14:46,434 --> 01:14:48,302
Though at last we may face our failure and
oblivion
975
01:14:48,337 --> 01:14:52,945
But the dove of our spirits never rest
976
01:14:52,946 --> 01:14:55,727
Transcribed by OOPS
977
01:14:55,728 --> 01:14:58,590
www.myoops.org
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